NFL WEEK 5 BEST BETS : MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Oct, 6

Summary

The Kansas City Chiefs face the Jacksonville Jaguars in a Week 5 NFL matchup. Kansas City holds a historical advantage, having won the last eight meetings, including a playoff victory in 2023. Despite this, recent games have been competitive. The Chiefs are rejuvenated after a strong win over Baltimore, while the Jaguars are 3-1 and are coming off an impressive victory against San Francisco.

The prediction is for the Chiefs to win 31-24, covering the -3.5 point spread, with the combined score going over 45.5 points. Several player props are highlighted, including Trevor Lawrence throwing for over 212.5 yards and multiple touchdowns, and Travis Kelce exceeding 42.5 receiving yards. A parlay combining these outcomes with a Chiefs cover offers a significant payout.

By Adam Greene

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (+3.5, O/U: 45.5)

Location: EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, Fla.

Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. EST

Broadcast: ABC/ESPN

THE HISTORY

This will be the 17^th all-time meeting between the Jaguars and Chiefs. Kansas City, you will not be shocked to learn, holds a 10-6 advantage in the all-time series and has won eight consecutive games going all the way back to 2010. If you’re doing the math, the last time Jacksonville won this one, a 24-21 victory on Nov. 8, 2009, current quarterback Trevor Lawrence had just turned 10 years old the month before. That game was another classic Matt Cassel vs David Garrard quarterback duel and my guess is, for many of you, that’s the first time you’ve ever seen those two players names before in your life.

The games we do need to pay attention to in this matchup are those since Lawrence was drafted by the Jags No. 1 overall in the 2021 NFL Draft. He’s 0-3 against KC and Mahomes, but the last two have been within a single score, including a 27-20 Chiefs win in the 2022-23 AFC Divisional Round. These games have not been the mismatches you’d expect.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (2-2)

The Chiefs come into this one rejuvenated after finally looking like the team that’s owned the AFC for nearly all the last decade in a 37-20 beat down of the Baltimore Ravens that just might have ended the Black Birds’ season. And, yeah, we’re just now in October.

Patrick Mahomes was 25 of 37 for 270 yards and four touchdowns. KC still can’t run the ball and the leading rusher was Xavier Worthy, who the team saw fit to give the ball twice on rushing plays if, for no other reason, that to keep Travis Kelce from slamming into him in a pass route. Worthy also caught five passes for 83 yards, Kelce, gearing up for a week where every teenage girl on the planet would get to hear a song describing his penis in detail, had five receptions for 48 yards. The touchdown passes went to Hollywood Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Isiah Pacheco and Tyquan Thornton because the Chiefs had to screw every single fantasy football manager in the country over while they were at it.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (3-1)

The Liam Coen era might have looked rough as he mouthed “Duuuval” at the podium while looking like a cat about to puke up a hairball on the day he was hired, but the season has opened pretty great for the first-year head coach.

Coen’s team already notched a huge win last week, knocking off the San Francisco 49ers, 26-21,in a game where the defense held Christian McCaffrey to just 49 yards rushing, picked off Brock Purdy twice and sacked him so hard they’ve created a quarterback controversy in San Fran. Lawrence didn’t light the scoreboard up, but he didn’t have to since Travis Etienne rushed for 124 yards on 19 carries with a TD. Lawrence was 21 of 31 for 174 yards and a touchdown pass to Hunter Long.

BEST BETS

First off, let’s make the pick. In the Friday Afternoon Quarterback I went with Chiefs 31, Jaguars 24 and I’m sticking with it. So that means I think the Chiefs will cover -3.5 and I like the over of 45.5.

These games have been a single score in recent history and I see this one going down the same way. I do think the KC defense is a little more porous this time around and it’s time for Lawrence to have an elite game, even in a loss.

Speaking of Lawrence I like him pass for more than 212.5 yards and toss 2+ touchdowns which pays at +210.

On the Chiefs side, in Prime Time and on the release week of Taylor Swift’s Life of a Showgirl, I feel like her boyfriend Uncle Travvy is gong to have a solid outing himself, so I have him with a touchdown reception and over 42.5 receiving yards added with Patrick Mahomes surpassing 220.5 passing yards in the game. That pays at +350

Since we’ve already got Kelce going to go over 42.5 receiving yards, you can pair that with Worthy hitting the over on 64.5 receiving yards at +300.

And, if you’re adventurous, you can put all the Chiefs props together with their -3.5 line for a five-leg parlay that pays at +1000.

Follow Adam Greene on Blue Sky @AdamGreene13, threads @adam.greene and Twitter @TheFirstMan

Willis Jonathan Willis has been a sports writer for nearly two decades. His insightful wagering analysis has been featured on many of the premier brands in the betting industry over his many years in the industry. He is a proud alumnus of Florida State University, and he is addicted to history podcasts.