NFL WEEK 6 BEST BETS: MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Summary
Two Monday Night Football games are featured. The first matchup sees the Buffalo Bills, coming off a home loss, face the Atlanta Falcons, who are rested after a bye week. The prediction is for Buffalo to cover the 4-point spread and for the game to exceed the 50-point total. Player prop bets are highlighted, including Josh Allen throwing for over 228.5 yards and scoring a touchdown, and Bijan Robinson surpassing 81.5 rushing and 33.5 receiving yards.
The second game pits the Chicago Bears against the Washington Commanders. Washington is favored to cover the 4.5-point spread, and the game is expected to go over the 49.5-point total. Key wagers involve both quarterbacks, Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams, exceeding their passing yard totals, while receivers Rome Odunze and Deebo Samuel are also predicted to go over their respective receiving yard lines.
By Adam Greene
We have not one, but two Monday Night Football contests with which to fatten our bank accounts this week, so let’s look at them.
BUFFALO BILLS AT ATLANTA FALCONS (+4, O/U: 50)
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Ga.
Kickoff: 7:15 p.m. EST
Broadcast: ESPN
THE HISTORY
This is not exactly the most storied rivalry in the NFL. This will just be the 14th meeting between the teams with the Falcons holding a 7-6 advantage. The Bills have won the last two matchups and Josh Allen has only suited up against Atlanta once, outdueling Matt Ryan, 29-15, on Jan. 2, 2022.
BUFFALO BILLS (4-1)
The Bills come into this game with the sordid stink of a home loss to the hated New England Patriots wafting around them. It was a pathetic offensive showing for Allen and Buffalo. He was 22 of 31 for 253 yards, two touchdowns and a bad pick while leading the team with 53 yards on the ground. Dalton Kincaid caught six passes for 108 yards. The defense did sack Drake Maye four times, for all the good it did.
ATLANTA FALCONS (2-2)
Atlanta had the week off after knocking off the Jayden Daniels-less Washington Commanders a fortnight ago. Michael Penix, Jr had a solid game, going 20 of 26 for 313 yards, two TDs and a pick. Bijan Robinson rushed 17 times for 75 yards and a score and caught four passes for 106 yards. Drake London had eight receptions for 110 yards and a touchdown. The defense picked off Marcus Mariota once and sacked him twice.
BEST BETS
In the Friday Afternoon quarterback I picked this one Bills 31, Falcons 21 and I still like it. That means Buffalo will cover -4 (-110) and the game will hit the Over (-106).
I like Josh Allen going over 228.5 passing yards and scoring a touchdown anytime combined pays out at +280.
Keon Coleman catching more than 34.5 yards and Dalton Kincaid getting 32.5 receiving yards pays at +163 and that just feels like stealing money.
Combine all those Bills offensive props pays at +600.
For the Falcons, I like Bijan Robinson to go over 81.5 rushing yards and over 33.5 receiving yards. That pays at +350.
CHICAGO BEARS AT WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (-4.5, O/U: 49.5)
Location: Northwest Stadium, Landover, Md.
Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. EST
Broadcast: ABC
THE HISTORY
While the Bills and Falcons are relative strangers, the same can’t be said for the Bears and Commanders. Chicago and Washington have met 54 times since 1932, with the Commanders holding a 28-25-1 lead in the all-time series. They’ve split their last four meetings, but before that Washington reeled off seven straight from 2004-2016. Last year, of course, Jayden Daniels hit Noah Brown on a 52-yard game-winning Hail Mary touchdown pass while Chicago cornerback Tyrique Stevenson was jawing with the crowd and paying no attention to the actual play on the field. Stevenson snapped out of it just in time to swat the ball up and right into Brown’s waiting hands. It was not Rique’s best day.
CHICAGO BEARS (2-2)
The Bears have won two in a row and head coach Ben Johnson is in such a good mood over it he’s only slightly mean to female sideline reporters now. Thanks to a blocked field goal with a minute to go, Chicago held on to a 25-24 win over the Las Vegas Raiders last week. Caleb Williams was 22 of 37 passing for 212 yards, a TD and an interception. The team did nothing on the ground, combining for not very nice 69 total rushing yards. D’Andre Swift did score a touchdown. Rome Odunze led the receivers with four catches for 69 yards and a score, which is twice as nice. The defense picked off Geno Smith three times because of course they did. Geno’s gonna Geno.
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (3-2)
Jayden Daniels’ return from injury worked out alright for the Commanders as they dominated the Los Angeles Chargers last Sunday, 27-10. Daniels was 15 of 26 for 231 yards and a touchdown with no picks. Bill Croskey-Merritt had 14 carries for 111 yards and two TDs. Deebo Samuel caught eight passes for 96 yards and a score. Washington sacked Justin Herbert four times, picked him off once and sat him down for Trey Lance before the game was over.
BEST BETS
The FAQ says Commanders 30, Bears 23 and I’m still all about it. That means Washington will cover -4.5 (-107) and the game will also hit the Over 49.5 (-105).
Our quarterbacks are going to put it up, so I’m looking at Jayden Daniels over 244.5 passing yards and Caleb Williams over 235.5 passing yards. That parlay pays +320.
And since my goal here is to make you money, let’s steal some putting Rome Odunze at over 58.5 receiving yards and Deebo Samuel at over 51.5 receiving yards. That will pay you +140.
Follow Adam Greene on Blue Sky @AdamGreene13, threads @adam.greene and Twitter @TheFirstMan
