NHL Best Bets and Props For Tuesday, November 18th, 2025

Tuesday’s slate features two home favorites in spots they should own. Toronto hosts St. Louis in a matchup featuring two struggling defenses — and the Over’s been red-hot, cashing in 13 of the Leafs’ last 14.

Meanwhile in Chicago, the Blackhawks welcome a road-weary Flames team that they already shut out earlier this month. Calgary can’t finish, and the Hawks’ power play keeps cashing. Two clean setups, multiple angles to attack.

1) Stl/Tor Over 6 Goals (-106)

Edge in one line: Two leaky defenses, shaky goaltending, and Toronto’s track record of late chaos at home point to goals in bunches.

Bet Breakdown:

This matchup screams offense. Toronto’s lost five in a row, but they’re still producing at home — and giving it right back on the other end. The Leafs give up 3.79 per game, the Blues 3.84. Neither team can keep the puck out of their net right now.

Recent form screams Over. Toronto’s games have sailed over the number in 13 of their last 14. St. Louis has hit overs in 7 of 9 on the road. Those aren’t anomalies — they’re trends driven by defensive lapses and special-teams mismatches.

Speaking of special teams: the Blues’ power play can score, and Toronto’s penalty kill has been shaky. Flip it around, and St. Louis’s PK is bottom-tier, which means even a Matthews-less Leafs power play can cash. 

The goaltending matchup adds fuel to our over narrative. Jordan Binnington swings from brilliant to disaster, and Joseph Woll is making just his second start of the season. That’s not a recipe for tight defense—it’s a recipe for third-period chaos.

And chaos is what Scotiabank Arena does best. When Toronto’s tied or trailing late, they push pace and throw pucks at the net. That’s when empty-netters happen and 6 turns into 7. I’m projecting around 6.7 total goals.

Player Props:

Nylander Over 3.5 Shots on Goal:
No Matthews means more Nylander. He had zero shots last game — a rare blip — and he’s primed for a volume bounce-back.

2) Chicago ML (-113)

Edge in one line: Chicago’s power play and Knight’s goaltending should beat Calgary’s high-shot, low-finish offense.

Bet Breakdown:

The Hawks are alive. The Flames? Still crawling. One team’s competing, the other’s 1–10 on the road with 13 points. Don’t let the odds fool you — these teams aren’t close.

Special teams tell the story. Over their last five games, Chicago’s power play is 6-for-12. Calgary’s? 1-for-13. When whistles show up—and they will—the Hawks cash them and the Flames don’t. That’s how tight games turn into comfortable wins.

The goaltending edge is real. Spencer Knight sits at .924 on the year and already blanked Calgary with 33 saves on November 7th. The Flames pile up shots without finishing; the Hawks finish without needing 40 attempts.

Calgary’s game plan is predictable: outshoot you, grind you down, and hope something goes in. Low shooting % on one side, red-hot finishing on the other — that’s how you get shut out. And there’s nothing in the recent data that says it flips tonight. We’re backing the team that knows how to close games at home and has the goalie to lock it down.

Dart Throw: Blackhawks -1.5 (+215) — If Chicago leads late, they’re excellent at slamming the door and grabbing the empty-netter. Late insurance goals are a theme in this matchup at the United Center. And lately, Chicago’s covering margins even when they lose the shot count.

Player Props:

Nazem Kadri Over 2.5 SOG — Calgary fires from everywhere when they’re trailing, and Kadri’s the trigger man. Volume play that fits Calgary’s shot-heavy, goal-light identity.

Connor Bedard O 1.5 Pts — Bedard is the engine behind Chicago’s offense and power play. When they win, he’s in the middle of it — and his current heater is worth riding until it cools off.