NHL Best Bets Today | Expert Picks for Tuesday, December 30
Summary
Tuesday’s NHL schedule features two distinct matchups. In Toronto, the Maple Leafs hold a significant goaltending advantage over the visiting New Jersey Devils, whose offense is struggling. With Toronto’s explosive scoring potential at home, they are a valuable pick despite their defensive flaws. Key player bets include John Tavares recording a point and Jack Hughes exceeding his shot total against the Leafs’ porous defense.
The later game in Chicago should be a low-scoring affair. The Islanders consistently play tight, defensive hockey on the road, while the Blackhawks are severely hampered offensively without Connor Bedard. With two reliable goaltenders expected to start, the conditions strongly favor a game totaling fewer than 5.5 goals.
Tuesday’s NHL slate delivers two games with completely different vibes — and both offer decent betting value. In Toronto, the Leafs host a Devils squad that’s structurally sound but snakebit offensively — and the goaltending edge leans heavily to the home side.
In Chicago, the Islanders visit a desperate Blackhawks squad that just got torched for seven at home, but the shape of this game screams low-scoring grind rather than offensive fireworks.
Let’s take a look at the Best Bets for Tuesday, December 30th.
1) Toronto Maple Leafs ML (+103)
Edge in one line: You’re getting plus-money on a Leafs team with the better goalie, at home, in a building where this matchup always turns into a track meet.
Woll’s rocking a .913 save percentage with quality starts in eight of his last ten, while Markstrom’s sitting at .883 with a 3.33 GAA and getting lit up more often than a Christmas tree. The Devils drive play at 5-on-5, sure, but when the puck’s flying, and chances are coming in waves (which they will in this building), Markstrom’s most likely the guy fishing rubber out of his net.
Toronto’s put up 3, 1, 6, 7, and 2 goals in their last five — streaky but explosive. They still bleed chances, but against a cold Devils offense and shaky goaltending, the Leafs’ firepower should take over. New Jersey as a road favorite? Questionable at best. They’ve dropped three straight and now face a Leafs team that, for all their flaws, is still 12-5-5 at home.
Player Props
John Tavares Over 0.5 Points
Tavares has 35 points in 38 games, and he’s locked into heavy offensive minutes with PP1 time, especially if Nylander doesn’t play. In a game where we’re expecting Toronto to get to 3+ goals, Tavares is going to be involved in the action.
Jack Hughes Over Shots on Goal
Hughes is averaging nearly four shots per game (75 shots in 20 games), and he’s the kind of player who thrives when his team is chasing or pushing late.
The Leafs give up plenty of quality looks — they’ve allowed 21 goals in their last five games — and Hughes operates in exactly the areas where Toronto’s defense breaks down. He’ll see heavy ice time, multiple power-play opportunities, and late-game situations where the Devils are pressing.
2) Under 5.5 Goals (+109) | Islanders at BlackHawks
Edge in one line: The Islanders have hit the Under in eight of their last nine on the road. Chicago’s without Bedard and can’t generate much offense. With two solid goalies in net — not the usual chaos — this total should be 5 flat.
The Isles play slow, structured hockey that drags opponents into rock fights. They’re not built for track meets — and after collapsing late in Columbus, expect an even tighter leash tonight.
Chicago’s offense is also operating without its top gear. Connor Bedard is out, and that’s a massive blow to a team that already struggles to create consistent chances. Their power play loses its most potent weapon, and their 5-on-5 offense lacks the firepower to overwhelm a structured defensive team like the Islanders. With Spencer Knight — and Sorokin possibly returning too — we’re looking at two legit goalies in net. No freebies, no chaos. Everything points to Under.
The Islanders have gone under in six of their last seven overall, and this matchup fits the exact profile of their recent games. At +109, you’re getting paid to back the more likely outcome — a tight, low-event game that ends 3-2 or 2-1. Empty-netters and special teams chaos can always bite you, but that’s why the plus-money matters. This line should be 5.5 at -120, not plus juice.
