NHL Futures: Breaking Down the Hart and Calder Races at the Quarter Mark

One-fourth into the season, and two futures races are already stealing the spotlight — the Hart Trophy chase and the Calder battle for rookie of the year.

The odds tell one story. The media spins another. We’re here with both — plus the stats to show who’s actually in the race. This isn’t about hot takes or predictions — it’s about spotting value, identifying real contenders, and tracking who can shake up the board down the stretch.

Let’s get into it.

Hart Trophy Contenders

The Hart race at 25 games into the season has a clear frontrunner, a perpetual threat, and a cluster of young stars turning bad teams into watchable ones. Nathan MacKinnon is doing everything right on the league’s best team. Connor McDavid is Connor McDavid. And then there’s the chaos: Connor Bedard and Macklin Celebrini are carrying bottom-feeders into relevance while David Pastrnak quietly piles up goals in Boston.

The Favorite: Nathan MacKinnon (-125)

MacKinnon leads the league in goals (18) and points (39) through 23 games while the Avalanche sit at 17-1-5, the best record in hockey. He’s averaging 21:37 per night, quarterbacking a power play that’s top-three in the league, and posting a +26 that screams dominance. Colorado scores 3.8 goals per game and suffocates teams on the penalty kill. When MacKinnon is on the ice, they’re a wagon. When he sits, they’re merely good.

This is year 13 for MacKinnon, and it’s his best start yet. The shooting percentage (18.2%) is real—he’s not getting lucky, he’s hunting better looks and burying them. Colorado’s coaching staff has praised his improved defensive play, giving voters the complete two-way package they love. The narrative is clean: league scoring leader on the league’s best team, playing heavy minutes in all situations.

The path to winning: Keep doing exactly this. If Colorado finishes with the Presidents’ Trophy and MacKinnon stays atop the scoring race, voters won’t overthink it. This is what a Hart winner looks like.

What could derail it: If the Avalanche cool off and finish as just another playoff team, the “best team” narrative weakens. Or if McDavid or one of the kids passes him in points by a clear margin, voters might chase the bigger number.

The Best Value: Connor Bedard (+2200)

Bedard has 33 points in 24 games while averaging 21:30 per night as Chicago’s true number-one center. The Blackhawks are 10-8-4, sitting around .600 in a season where they were supposed to be unwatchable. He’s leading the team in scoring by a mile, racking up multi-point nights, and making Chicago appointment viewing again.

At +2200, Bedard represents the value play for anyone who believes in the “most valuable to his team” interpretation of the Hart. If Chicago sticks around the playoff picture and Bedard stays top-five in league scoring, he becomes impossible to ignore. Voters are cautious about crowning young stars, but if the story becomes “this team is nothing without him,” he’ll start picking up 1st place votes quickly.

The path to winning: Chicago makes the playoffs or pushes deep into the race, and Bedard finishes with 95+ points while leading the league in primary assists or goals created. Voters start asking themselves: Who else could do this with this roster?

What probably keeps him short: Even at his best, Chicago likely finishes behind Colorado, and Edmonton in the standings. His 17.5% shooting might cool, and if he settles around 90 points, it won’t be enough to beat MacKinnon or McDavid, who are pacing toward 120 points. Voters may frame him as “future Hart winner, present-day top-three finalist”—which is still a hell of a story, just not enough for the trophy.

The Longshot: Macklin Celebrini (+1800)

Celebrini sits third in league scoring with 37 points (14 goals, 23 assists) and has turned the Sharks from a presumed lottery lock into an actual playoff contender. The Sharks were supposed to be stuck at the bottom. Instead, they’re winning — and Celebrini’s the driving force..

At +1800, Celebrini is the biggest longshot ticket with an actual clear path. If San Jose stays relevant and he lands top-three in points, the script’s already written — second-year star drags a young roster into the fight. It’s absurd, but that’s exactly why it would resonate.

The path to winning: San Jose finishes with 95+ points, Celebrini leads the league in assists or points, and voters decide the Hart should go to the player who moved the needle most. It’s a long shot, but it’s not impossible.

What probably keeps him short: The same issue as Bedard—team performance. Even if the Sharks overachieve, they’re unlikely to finish ahead of the genuine contenders. Celebrini might collect some first-place votes as a statement, but MacKinnon or McDavid will likely have the cleaner resumes.

Others Worth Mentioning

Connor McDavid (+225) is always lurking. He’s pacing the league in assists (24) and still logs over 23 minutes per night, but Edmonton’s middling record (10-10-5) and his -6 rating hurt the narrative. If the Oilers rip off a 15-3 stretch and McDavid posts another 140-point season, he’ll be right back in the conversation. At +225, he’s the safest hedge—you’re never really wrong betting on McDavid.

David Pastrnak (+4500) is the veteran dark horse. He’s got 26 points, Boston is overachieving again, and if he pushes toward 60 goals while the Bruins finish top-five overall, some voters will want to reward him. His path is narrow, but if MacKinnon and McDavid split votes and voters want a fresh face, Pastrnak becomes the cleanest alternative.

Calder Trophy

The Calder race is a defenseman’s world right now, and everyone else is just living in it. Matthew Schaefer is logging historic minutes for the Islanders and looks like a finished product already. Ivan Demidov is the preseason favorite, trying to live up to the hype in Montreal. And then there’s the chaos: Beckett Sennecke is quietly tied for the rookie scoring lead in Anaheim, while Jesper Wallstedt is posting video-game numbers in Minnesota’s crease.

The Favorite: Matthew Schaefer (-300)

Schaefer has 18 points in 25 games while averaging 23:26 per night—the heaviest workload of any rookie skater by a mile. He’s playing top-pair minutes at five-on-five, quarterbacking the power play, and anchoring the penalty kill. The Islanders’ tilt shot attempts and goals in their favor when he’s on the ice, and he’s already being framed as their most important skater, not just “good for a rookie.” At -300, the betting market thinks this race is already over.

The path to winning: Keep doing exactly this. Three of the last six Calder winners have been defensemen, and voters are comfortable rewarding elite two-way play even if forwards post bigger point totals. If Schaefer maintains this usage and the Islanders stay in the playoff mix, he’s a lock.

What could derail it: If his scoring flattens and a forward pushes 70+ points, some voters will default to raw offense. Any rookie-wall dip in minutes or usage would chip away at the “all-situations workhorse” narrative that’s currently driving his case.

The Best Value: Ivan Demidov (+200)

Demidov has 19 points in 24 games while averaging 14:20 per night, and his usage is trending upward. He’s already near the top of Montreal’s scoring list despite playing middle-six minutes with limited defensive responsibility. The preseason Calder favorite is living up to the hype, and there’s a clear runway for his role to expand. If he moves full-time into the top six and logs heavy power-play minutes, his counting stats could explode.

The path to winning: Montreal leans into him as a focal point of the offense, his ice time climbs into the 18-minute range, and he finishes with 70+ points. The “back-to-back Habs Calder winners” storyline after Lane Hutson’s win last season is catnip for voters.

What could hold him back: If the Islanders finish with a clearer playoff spot while Montreal hovers around the bubble, that tilts the narrative toward Schaefer’s “value to a winning team” case.

The Longshot: Jesper Wallstedt (+2000)

Wallstedt is 7-0-2 with a 1.93 GAA and .938 save percentage through nine starts—literally league-best numbers among goalies with 9+ games. He’s gone from backup to de facto starter in high-leverage games, and Minnesota’s surge up the standings coincides directly with him taking the net.

The path to winning: He finishes with 50+ starts and maintains top-three GAA and save percentage. Goalie-driven narratives are powerful—voters have to consider him if he’s the reason Minnesota turns their season around. Dustin Wolf nearly won last season, so voters are primed to reward elite rookie goaltending again.

What works against him: If Minnesota keeps him in a 1A/1B split with Gustavsson and he only hits 35-40 starts, it’s hard to beat an 82-game defenseman or a 75-point winger. One bad month can balloon his numbers, and goalie variance is real.

Others Worth Mentioning: 

Beckett Sennecke (+2000) is tied for the rookie scoring lead with 19 points in 25 games and is driving Anaheim’s top line alongside McTavish and Gauthier. At +2000, he’s the prototypical value dark horse—already has the stats, but public discourse still treats this as a two-man race. 

Jimmy Snuggerud (+5000) was a preseason favorite but has just 11 points in 25 games. Without a goal-scoring explosion or a big jump in role, he’s more likely an honorable mention than a top-three finalist.

Closing Thoughts:

The quarter mark is early enough that these races can still flip, but late enough that the frontrunners have real separation. MacKinnon and Schaefer are priced like locks for a reason—they’re doing everything right on teams that are winning. But the value isn’t in betting the favorites at -125 and -300. It’s in identifying which longshots have a legitimate path and which narratives could gain steam over the next two months. 

Bedard is dragging Chicago into the playoffs. Demidov is exploding in Montreal. Wallstedt is stealing the crease in Minnesota. These aren’t just fun tickets — they’re real paths with upside.

The smart money isn’t always on the favorite. Sometimes it’s on the guy who’s one heater away from making the race extremely interesting.