NHL Predictions: Top Picks & Player Props for December 16
Summary
Tuesday’s NHL slate features two key matchups. The Islanders are undervalued road underdogs against Detroit, holding a significant goaltending edge with Ilya Sorokin over the Red Wings’ John Gibson, who is on a hot streak but has poor season-long stats. Detroit’s offense is also weakened by Patrick Kane’s absence.
In Pittsburgh, a chaotic goalie revenge game sees Tristan Jarry return with Edmonton against his former team and Stuart Skinner. Despite Edmonton’s firepower, their scoring drops sharply on the road, and Pittsburgh has a travel and emotional edge as a home underdog. Player props highlight shot volume from stars like Larkin and Crosby.
Tuesday’s NHL slate is packed, but two matchups jump off the board — revenge fuel, goaltending gaps, and special teams that could tilt everything.
The Islanders travel to Detroit as road dogs despite bringing Ilya Sorokin — one of the league’s best goalies — against a Red Wings team missing Patrick Kane and relying on John Gibson’s hot streak to mask season-long struggles. In Pittsburgh, the goalie trade revenge game takes center stage as Tristan Jarry returns to PPG Paints Arena in an Oilers sweater while Stuart Skinner tries to prove Edmonton gave up on him too soon.
Player props focus on shot volume from stars like Larkin, Crosby, and McDavid, plus Sorokin’s save total in a matchup built for high volume against an elite goalie.
Here’s how I’m playing today’s slate.
1) Islanders Moneyline (+112)
Edge in one line: New York brings the better goalie, deeper forward group, and strong road form against a Detroit team missing Patrick Kane and relying on a hot Gibson streak that masks a shaky season-long profile.
Bet Breakdown:
The books are pricing Detroit like a small home favorite, which makes sense on the surface: better 5-on-5 numbers, strong at home, fresh off a solid road trip. But once you account for the actual matchup, New York looks like the side with the edge.
The goalie gap is massive. Ilya Sorokin is posting a save percentage over .910 with a goals-against in the mid-2s, and he just stonewalled Tampa with 32 saves in a game where the Islanders were badly outshot. John Gibson has been red hot lately — two shutouts in his last three starts with a 1.00 GAA — but that’s on top of season-long numbers around .890 with 3+ goals against per game. If this turns into a goalie duel, New York has the clear edge. Gibson is on a heater, but Sorokin is the heater.
Detroit is also missing Patrick Kane, who’s posted 23 points in 24 games and drives the top line with DeBrincat — especially on the power play. His spot goes to John Leonard, who’s unproven at this level in this role. That’s a real hit to Detroit’s scoring ceiling and playmaking depth.
Head-to-head in Detroit, these games tend to be tight and low-scoring. The total has gone under in 7 of the last 10 meetings at Little Caesars Arena, with an average combined score of around 5.5 goals.
Recap: New York should be the slight favorite here, not the underdog. We’d rather ride Sorokin at plus money than lay a price with Gibson without Kane in front of him.
Player Props | Islanders vs Red Wings
Dylan Larkin – Over 2.5 Shots on Goal
Larkin averages just over 3 shots per game (103 shots in 33 games), plays top-line minutes, runs the power play, and logs 20+ minutes a night. The Islanders allow a ton of shot attempts — teams usually get volume against them, but they just struggle to beat Sorokin. With Kane out, there’s even more incentive for Larkin to be the primary shooter on his line.
Ilya Sorokin – Over 29.5 Saves
Detroit likes to push the pace and get pucks on net, especially at home. The Islanders give up plenty of zone time and shot attempts, but Sorokin cleans it up. That’s the exact combination you want for a save over prop: lots of volume with an elite goalie on the other end. We’re expecting Detroit to land around 30 shots in most game scripts, making anything in the high 20s worth a look.
Betting Notes- Islanders vs Red Wings
- Recent Form: Islanders 6 wins in last 7 with Sorokin carrying them; Red Wings 4-1-1 on brutal 6-game road trip, just shut out Chicago 4-0
- Home/Road: Red Wings 5-2 in last 7 home games vs Islanders
- Total History: Under has hit in 7 of the last 10 meetings in Detroit
- Average Scoring: Recent head-to-head meetings average around 5.5 combined goals
- Shot Volume: Islanders allow high shot attempts but keep scores low; Detroit expected to land ~30 shots
2) Penguins Moneyline (+120)
Edge in one line: Pittsburgh gets home ice with a revenge angle in net, a power play that can expose Edmonton’s shaky penalty kill, and a travel edge against a team that rarely brings its best on the road.
Bet Breakdown:
This isn’t just Edmonton vs Pittsburgh — it’s the goalie trade revenge game. Tristan Jarry comes back to Pittsburgh in an Oilers sweater, while Stuart Skinner, the guy Edmonton just shipped out, is now in the home crease trying to prove they gave up on him too fast. Add in the fact that the Penguins have blown third-period leads in four of their last five, and you’ve got full chaos potential at PPG Paints Arena.
The market has Edmonton as the road favorite around -136, and on paper, that makes sense: McDavid, Draisaitl, Bouchard, and Jarry in net is a lot of firepower. But the Oilers score 3.93 goals per game at home and just 2.89 on the road. Their best version doesn’t travel, and they just played back-to-back road games in Toronto and Montreal before having to travel again to Pittsburgh on short rest. The Penguins played five straight at home with the same one day off, but no travel.
The revenge angle in net works both ways. Jarry’s numbers in his first start with Edmonton were solid (.908 save percentage, 2.69 GAA), but walking back into his old rink with a ton of emotion can mean pressing early. Skinner’s numbers are less pretty (.891 save percentage, 2.83 GAA), but he’s staring at the team that decided he wasn’t good enough. Over one emotional night, that gap shrinks.
Pittsburgh’s offense is still there — they’ve scored 2, 3, 2, 5, and 4 goals in their last five games. The problem is they’re coughing up games late. But if you’re backing a home dog, you want a team that’s getting leads and generating chances, not one that can’t score. At some point they get one over the line, and doing it as a home dog instead of a home favorite is exactly where you want to buy in.
Pick Recap: This isn’t about who’s better on paper — it’s about a spot where the gap isn’t nearly as wide as the number says, and chaos favors the home dog.
Player Props | Oilers vs Penguins
Sidney Crosby – Over 2.5 Shots on Goal
If the Penguins are going to show up in this spot, Crosby has to drive the bus. He’s still over a point per game, plays heavy minutes in all situations, and in a game where Pittsburgh needs to stop the bleeding, you can expect him to shoot first and defer second.
Betting Notes | Oilers vs Penguins
- Goalie Trade Revenge: Jarry returns to Pittsburgh in Oilers sweater; Skinner now in Penguins crease after Edmonton traded him
- Home/Road Split: Oilers score 3.93 goals per game at home, just 2.89 on the road
- Third Period Collapses: Penguins blown leads in 4 of last 5 games
- Recent PP Production: Penguins 5 PPG on 20 chances last 5; Oilers 3 PPG on 14 chances but allowed 4 PP goals on 14 kills
- Travel Edge: Oilers played back-to-back in Toronto/Montreal before traveling to Pittsburgh; Penguins played 5 straight at home
Market Angle: Edmonton taxed as a public road favorite; Pittsburgh discounted after blowing multiple leads
