Predictions & Picks, NBA Best Bets for Thursday, Dec. 11
Summary
The Boston Celtics, on a five-game win streak, face the struggling Milwaukee Bucks, who are without Giannis Antetokounmpo. Boston’s strong defense and three-point shooting, led by Jaylen Brown, are favored against a Bucks team that has lost eight of ten. The prediction is for the Celtics to cover the -7.5 point spread.
In other games, the Portland Trail Blazers are predicted to beat the injury-plagued New Orleans Pelicans and cover a -5.5 spread, with the total score expected to go over 237.5 points. Meanwhile, the high-scoring Denver Nuggets, led by Nikola Jokic, are heavily favored to defeat the low-offense Sacramento Kings and cover a -9 point spread.
Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks 8:00 p.m. EST
| Spread | ML | Total | |
| Celtics | -7.5 (-110) | -275 | O226.5 (-110) |
| Bucks | +7.5 (-110) | +225 | U226.5 (-110) |
Boston Celtics (11-11)
The Celtics have won 5 straight and 10 of their last 12 as they travel to Milwaukee to face the Bucks. Boston averages 117.3 points per game (15th in the league) while allowing 110.6 per contest (third best in the NBA). The Celtics continue to be the best three-point shooting team in the NBA, averaging 16 made treys per game. Jaylen Brown (29.1 PPG) has been deadly recently, scoring at least 30 points in 6 of the last seven while four others (White, Pritchard, Simons, Quetta) average at least ten points per outing. Â
Milwaukee Bucks (11-9)
With Giannis Antetokounmpo still sidelined, the Bucks have lost two in a row and have won 2-8 in the last ten games, dropping them to 10th in the East. Milwaukee ranks 20th in the league in scoring(115.1 PPG) while the defense (118.0) has suffered, ranking 22nd. The good news has been the play of Kevin Porter Jr., who has taken over as the main guy, as he’s averaged 27 PPG in the last four games with nearly 7 assists in that span.Â
Injuries
Celtics: Jayson Tatum: Out (Achilles)
Bucks: Taurean Prince: Out (Neck), Giannis Antetokounmpo: Out (Calf), AJ Green: Day-To-Day (Shoulder)
Recent Betting Trends
Boston is 14-10-0 ATS this season.
The Celtics have won 10 of 14 games when favored
Boston is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games against Milwaukee.
Milwaukee is 11-14-0 ATS this year.
The Bucks haven’t won a game when +226 or longer on the ML
Prediction
With the Greek Freak, the Bucks are just not the same, and with the streak the Celtics are on, it’s easy to favor Boston in this game. The difference will be the three-point shooting and Boston’s bench. Derrick White has been a threat from three-point land, draining at least 4 shots in the last four games while shooting 40.8%.  BEST BET: Celtics -7.5
Portland Trail Blazers vs New Orleans Pelicans 8:00 p.m. EST
| Spread | ML | Total | |
| Trail Blazers | -5.5 (-110) | -210 | O237.5 (-110) |
| Pelicans | +5.5 (-110) | +175 | U237.5 (-110) |
Portland Trail Blazers (11-11)
The Trail Blazers have lost 2 in a row and 3-7 in the last ten and sit 10th in the West.
Deni Avdija (25.8) leads the team in scoring, with Shaedon Sharpe (21.1) providing secondary scoring. Defensively, they allow the sixth most points (120.6).
New Orleans Pelicans (11-9)
Things have gone from bad to worse for the Pelicans as they are still without star Zion Williamson and have lost seven straight and nine of the last ten. New Orleans averages the 7th fewest points (113.0) while giving up the third most (123.7) overall. One of the biggest concerns has been ball movement as the Pelicans are near the bottom of the league with only 59% of their made baskets coming off assists. Trey Murphy III is averaging 22.1 PPG while Derik Queen is the team’s leading rebounder at 6.4 per game.
Injuries
Trail Blazers: Damian Lillard: Out For Season (Achilles), Scoot Henderson: Out (Hamstring), Blake Wesley: Out (Foot), Matisse Thybulle: Out (Thumb), Robert Williams III: Out (Illness), Jrue Holiday: Day-To-Day (Calf), Donovan Clingan: Day-To-Day (Leg)
Pelicans: Dejounte Murray: Out (Leg), Zion Williamson: Out (Abductor), Jordan Poole: Day-To-Day (Quadricep)
Recent Betting Trends
Portland is 13-11 ATS this season.
The Trail Blazers are 0-2 this season as favorites of 5.5 points or more points
Portland has gone over in 15 of its 25 games (60%).
New Orleans is 15-10-0 against the spread this season.
The Pelicans’ totals have gone over in 15 of 25 times (60%).
Prediction
Portland has won the last five meetings against the Pelicans and with both of these teams’ ability to score but not defend, we’re expecting another high-scoring affair. Portland is 6-9 on the road while the Pelicans have just 2 wins at home. Let’s go with Portland and the over. BEST BET: Trail Blazers -5.5 / OVER 237.5
Denver Nuggets vs Sacramento Kings 10:00 p.m. EST
| Spread | ML | Total | |
| Nuggets | -9 (-110) | -370 | O239.5 (-110) |
| Kings | +9 (-110) | +290 | U239.5 (-110) |
Preview
The Denver Nuggets are the highest scoring team in the NBA averaging 125 points per game while the Sacramento Kings are third from the bottom with just 111.4 PPG. These teams are at the opposite ends of runs right now as the Nuggets have won three straight and 7-3 in the last ten games while the Kings are 3-7 in the same span. Nikola Jokic continues his MVP season as he is averaging a triple-double this season (29.2 PPG, 12.3 REB, 11A), while Jamal Murray is contributing 25 PPG. As for the Kings, Zach LaVine averages a paltry 20.6 PPG, best on the roster.
Recent Betting Trends
Denver is 13-10-0 ATS this season.
The Nuggets are 15-9 on the OVER this season (62.5%).
Denver has won 16 of 21 games (76.2%) when favored.
The Kings are 8-16 ATS this season.
Sacramento is 6-3 ATS when underdogs by 9 or more points.
Prediction
The Nuggets have won seven of the last eight meetings but the Kings won the most recent one on Nov. 22, 109-98. Denver should be seeking revenge here and should have its way offensively in this one. The Kings lack of scoring will be an issue against the high-octane Nuggets. BEST BET: Nuggets -9
