Sunday NFL Best Bets

There has still only been one NFL coach fired so far this season. Tennessee let Brian Callahan go on October 13, but no other coach has been canned yet. Many thought that Mike McDaniel would finally be let go by Miami on Halloween morning after a 22-point home loss to Baltimore on Thursday Night Football, but the Dolphins fired their general manager instead and announced that McDaniel would be the coach for the rest of the season. It sounds like McDaniel has a temporary reprieve, leading many to believe that Brian Daboll is on the hottest seat in the NFL.

New York Giants +2.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers

If the New York Giants lose at home on Sunday, that could spell the end for Brian Daboll in the Big Apple. Daboll was named NFL Coach of the Year in his debut season back in 2022 after leading the Giants to the postseason for the first time in four seasons and giving the Giants their first playoff win in almost a decade. However, Big Blue is 11-31 since that point.

Rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart has shown some real promise over the last few weeks. Dart averaged over 8.0 YPA with five touchdowns and an interception against solid defenses in Philadelphia (x2) and Denver. The loss of fellow standout rookie Cam Skattebo does hurt, but the Giants have a decent backup in Tyrone Tracy Jr.

Meanwhile, the fresh coat of paint has faded on Mac Jones. Kyle Shanahan has done a great job of leading San Francisco to a 5-3 record with Brock Purdy only playing two games due to a toe injury, and Jones did look solid for a while. However, Jones has thrown two touchdowns and four interceptions in his last three starts. Additionally, the run game continues to struggle with Christian McCaffrey averaging just 3.5 YPC, and the defense is not as strong as it used to be with stars Nick Bosa and Fred Warner out for the season due to injury.

Shanahan has yet to name a starter under center for this game, but it’s likely to be Jones. Purdy has been dealing with a toe injury that has caused him to miss six games, and he already reaggravated the injury once. MetLife Stadium’s field turf has been heavily criticized given the number of injuries we have seen on that field, so I believe Jones will get the start while Purdy will return next week when San Francisco plays on natural grass. That gives the Giants a great chance to pull off the upset here.

Indianapolis Colts -3 at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Pittsburgh Steelers continue to get too much love from the sportsbooks. Pittsburgh was fortunate to win four of its first five games, but the Steelers have crashed back down to Earth the last two weeks. They blew double-digit leads in the first half in losses to Cincinnati and Green Bay as opposing offenses figured out just how to exploit them. Jordan Love completed 20 straight passes against the Pittsburgh defense, and he posted his best single-game passer rating ever in the Packers’ victory.

Pittsburgh is fortunate to even have a winning record. The Steelers are averaging 297.1 YPG on offense (25th in the NFL) while surrendering 386.0 YPG on defense (30th in the NFL). Offensive struggles are nothing new in the Steel City since the retirement of Ben Roethlisberger, but this might be the worst defense in the Mike Tomlin era.

The older veterans have not been playing well, and the secondary has been sliced and diced. For bettors tracking how these midseason shifts impact spreads and totals, the NFL odds board at BetOnline updates weekly lines, props, and team futures across every matchup.

Meanwhile, Indianapolis comes into this game with the NFL’s best offense in almost every metric. Shane Steichen has proven to be a play calling savant, and Daniel Jones is rejuvenating his career. The offensive line has only allowed Jones to be sacked nine times in eight starts, and the success of the run game has made play action very effective.

It’s clear that the Colts have the best offensive line in the league with three potential All Pro selections. That has allowed Jonathan Taylor to be the best running back through the first half of the season with 850 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns in eight games. Taylor has an outside chance to hit 2,000 rushing yards too, but Steichen has held him to under 18 carries a game so far to save his legs. 

Los Angeles Rams -13.5 vs. New Orleans Saints

Second-round pick Tyler Shough will be making his first start under center on Sunday. New Orleans raised a lot of eyebrows by taking Shough late in the second round even though he turned 26 in September. Shough was not particularly impressive in three years at Oregon and three years at Texas Tech before posting solid numbers in his seventh collegiate season while at Louisville. Much of that success can likely be attributed to Jeff and Brian Brohm too, as they have gotten the most out of their quarterbacks at the collegiate level.

New Orleans is clearly the worst team in the NFC. The Saints’ lone win this year came at home against the New York Giants who have started to turn things around as Jaxson Dart has had some seasoning. Playmakers Alvin Kamara and Rashid Shaheed are both listed as questionable, so Shough might not have much help either.

The Los Angeles Rams are at worst the third-best team in the NFC. LA has been both solid and consistent this season, and the Rams had some bad luck in their losses to Philadelphia and San Francisco. Their defense is surprisingly excellent too, allowing a scant 10 points in their last two victories.

Matt Stafford has two excellent targets in Puka Nacua and Davante Adams that complement each other well. Nacua is an underneath possession receiver that can keep the Rams ahead of the chains, while Adams is a deep threat that can fight for balls and make things happen in the red zone. The Rams have been able to stay healthy on offense too, and that’s a huge plus considering the injury issues they have had in the recent past.