Sunday NFL Best Bets

We are nearing the halfway point of the NFL season, and most of the usual suspects have reemerged as Super Bowl favorites. The Kansas City Chiefs are now favored to hoist the Lombardi Trophy per the most recent NFL futures odds, and the Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions are right behind the Chiefs. Philadelphia has moved back to 10-1 too after a convincing road win against Minnesota last week. Even the 1-5 Baltimore Ravens are still considered to be hunt by many analysts, and the Ravens are sitting at 20-1 despite their poor record.

Baltimore Ravens -7 vs. Chicago Bears

Lamar Jackson is still listed as questionable to play against Chicago on Sunday, but pretty much everyone expects the two-time NFL MVP to be on the field after taking part in a full practice on Friday. Jackson missed two straight games with a hamstring injury before Baltimore’s bye week, and the Ravens were completely inept on offense with Cooper Rush starting in his stead. Rush threw for just 251 yards with four interceptions in his two starts as the Ravens lost to Houston and the Los Angeles Rams by a combined score of 61-13.

Jackson means more to his team than any other player in the league except Patrick Mahomes. Baltimore suffered respectable losses to Buffalo, Detroit, and Kansas City when Jackson was under center, and the Ravens were up late before uncharacteristic Derrick Henry fumbles cost them dearly in losses to the Bills and Lions. That’s a big part of why they are a touchdown favorite per the NFL betting odds against the 4-2 Chicago Bears on Sunday.

The other reason why the Ravens are such big favorites in this spot is because John Harbaugh is the best coach in the league when it comes to facing an opponent off a bye week. Baltimore is 14-3 SU and 10-7 ATS after a regular season bye, so Chicago is likely to have a tough go of it on Sunday.

Chicago has righted the ship after an 0-2 start, winning four straight games. However, the Bears’ road wins against Las Vegas and Washington came by just one point each. Second-year quarterback Caleb Williams does look more comfortable after having a full season and an offseason to work with fellow 2024 first round pick Rome Odunze, but the Bears have major issues on defense ahead of this tilt. Three of their top four cornerbacks have been ruled out, so Jackson could post some big passing numbers in this game.

Buffalo Bills -7 at Carolina Panthers

For the first time ever, all four major sports teams in North Carolina are over .500. The Charlotte Hornets, FC Charlotte, Carolina Hurricanes, and Carolina Panthers all have winning records, but that certainly won’t last considering the recent fortunes of both the Hornets and the Panthers.

The Panthers have been a laughing stock since David Tepper bought the team. Carolina has won seven or fewer games in each of the last seven seasons, but there is some optimism after winning three straight games to move to 4-3. However, Carolina has yet to beat a team with a winning record this season.

Buffalo is coming off a bye week, so the Bills are well rested ahead of this tilt. They are looking to break a recent losing streak too, as they lost to both New England and Atlanta in back-to-back weeks after a 4-0 start. 

Josh Allen has been uncharacteristically shaky over the last month. Allen has thrown six touchdowns and four interceptions over his last three starts, and it seems clear that he is struggling without a true No. 1 receiver that can stretch the field. Khalil Shakir is averaging 10.7 YPR and Keon Coleman is averaging 9.9 YPR, so the leading receiver is actually tight end Dalton Kincaid. No Buffalo player is averaging more than 50 receiving yards per game.

Despite Buffalo’s offensive troubles of late, the Bills should be able to easily take care of business in the Carolinas on Sunday. The Panthers have used a good bit of smoke and mirrors to get to 4-3, and all three of their victories in their winning streak have been by a single score. To make matters worse, Bryce Young was downgraded to doubtful on Friday because of an ankle injury, and Andy Dalton will get the start if Young is unable to take the field.

Tennessee Titans +14.5 at Indianapolis Colts

The Indianapolis Colts are the best story so far this season. Shane Steichen is favored to be named NFL Coach of the Year by the current football futures odds, as the Colts are atop the AFC with a 6-1 record. Indianapolis has blown out its opponent in four of its six victories, including a 41-20 drubbing of the Tennessee Titans in Nashville back in Week 3.

Although the Colts won that game handily, Indianapolis wasn’t as dominant as you might think when you dig into the numbers. The Colts’ first touchdown was because of a pick six, and they ended the game with just 365 total yards. That’s a pretty high points-to-yards ratio, and it’s unlikely that will happen again.

Additionally, this is a letdown spot for Indianapolis. The Colts are more than two-touchdown favorites at home, and they are coming off a big win over the Los Angeles Chargers last week. Indy goes on the road to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Steel City next Sunday, so it’s only natural for the Colts to take their foot off the gas pedal a little bit in this situation.

Tennessee is in the middle of a massive rebuild, but the Titans might have found the right quarterback to lead the team in Cam Ward. We haven’t seen as much flash from Ward as we have from other rookie signal callers, yet he has a new head coach and is on a team with very little talent on the roster. Ward’s numbers aren’t great, but he has made some plays the last couple weeks even though he was sacked a total of 11 times, so I think he has what it takes to keep the Titans within the number here.