Way-too-early Look at The 2026 Heisman Trophy Race: It’s Wide Open

The 2026 Heisman Trophy race is already shaping up to be one of the most intriguing in recent memory as several quarterbacks are in the conversation.  When you look at the 2026 Heisman Trophy odds and early favorites, the betting market is already hinting at another QB-heavy year.

Last year, Fernando Mendoza took home the honors as he led his Hoosiers to a championship and is expected to go first in the NFL Draft.  Before we jump into the contenders, let’s not forget that eight of the last ten winners have been quarterbacks (Travis Hunter, Devonta Smith).   Another important stat, the average preseason price for the last ten Heisman winners is +3600, as Mendoza was +5500 last summer.

The Contenders

Arch Manning, QB, Texas (+550)

Arch Manning was one of the favorites last year to win this award, but had an underwhelming season.  A year later, the former five- star recruit heads into the college season as the projected No. 1 pick in the 2027 NFL Draft.  The Longhorns did add some offensive pieces for Manning, but have to address their offensive line as the young QB was sacked 23 times.  He finished 2025 with 3,163 passing yards, 32 total touchdowns, and completed 61.4% of his passes.

Trinidad Chambliss, QB, Ole Miss (+650)

After winning an injunction against the NCAA, Trinidad Chambliss will be able to return to Ole Miss as he gets another year of eligibility.  His experience shoots him up the betting board after a season that saw the QB throwing for 3,937 yards, 30 total touchdowns, and a 66.1% completion rate.  He was named SEC Newcomer of the Year after taking over the starting job in the third game of the season.  If he progresses in 2026, he’ll be in the conversation for the Heisman. 

CJ Carr, QB, Notre Dame (+750)

CJ Carr is considered one of the favorites as he’ll try to maximize a schedule with not many primetime games. The Irish’s game vs. Miami will be an important one, but other than that, Carr will try to become the first Notre Dame QB since 1964 to win the Heisman.   Last season, Carr put together a phenomenal first season, throwing for at least one TD in all 12 starts and finishing with 24 majors.  Expectations are high with the Irish, and if they have a playoff-worthy season, Carr should be in contention for the Heisman.

Dante Moore, QB, Oregon (+900)

Dante Moore was likely to be the second pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, but he stunned the football world by opting to return to Oregon for another season.  With a return, Moore is one of the more seasoned QBs in college football with a team considered to be a top contender.  Last season, he threw for 3,565 passing yards, 30 touchdowns, and completed 10 interceptions 71.8% of his passes.  He’ll need to cut down his turnovers (10 INT) if he has a shot at this award. 

Josh Hoover, QB, Indiana (+1000)

Hoover for Heisman as a Hoosier has a nice ring to it, doesn’t it?  Josh Hoover, who transfers over from TCU, could be among the FBS leaders in passing stats.  He threw for nearly 7,500 yards in his last two years with the Horned Frogs.  His first real test will come in Week 8 as the defending champs face Ohio State.   Last year, the Hoosiers’ win over the Buckeyes locked up the Heisman for Mendoza.  Could history repeat itself in 2026?

Sleeper Picks

Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State (+1400)

It’s rare that a Heisman winner isn’t a quarterback, but Jeremiah Smith stands out as the best non-quarterback contender in college football.  His ability to make explosive plays, evidenced by his elite yardage totals and impressive scoring, makes him impossible to ignore if he repeats or improves on his 2025 production.  If Smith dominates weekly and Ohio State is a College Football Playoff contender, his Heisman candidacy could soar.  In two seasons with the Buckeyes, Smith has more than 2,500 yards and 27 touchdowns.

Malachi Toney, WR, Miami (+2200)

Another explosive wide out is Maachi Toney.  “Baby Jesus,” as he’s known, finished his freshman season with 109 catches and 1,2111 receiving yards, fifth most in college football.  Toney even threw for two touchdowns, not bad for a teenager (18) who would be a senior in high school if he hadn’t reclassified to the class of 2025.  Toney was also incredible in the playoffs with 10 receptions, 122 yards, and a touchdown in the National Championship game.

Drew Mestemaker, QB,  Oklahoma State (+6600)

This may be a long shot, but the last two winners of the Heisman have started the season with odds of +5000 or longer.  Drew Mestemaker will be on the bigger stage at Oklahoma State after leaving North Texas, where he led the nation in passing with 4,379 yards.  While team success will be the biggest factor in his chances, he could be a trendy sleeper pick at this price.

Final Thoughts

The 2026 Heisman Trophy race will be compelling with several players who should be in the conversation, yet many more who could come out of nowhere.  As with every Heisman campaign, consistency, big-game performances, and national visibility will ultimately determine who hoists the bronze trophy in December 2026. 

2026 Heisman Trophy Odds

Arch Manning TEX (+550)

Trinidad Chambliss Ole Miss (+650)

CJ Carr ND (+750)

Dante Moore ORE (+900)

Josh Hoover IND (+1000)

Julian Sayin OSU (+1200)

Darian Mensah MIA FL (+1200)

Sam Leavitt LSU (+1300)

Jeremiah Smith OSU (+1400)