Week 14 NFL Best Bets

This is the last bye week of the 2025-26 NFL season. The next four weeks will all have 16 games as teams battle it out for the postseason. The NFC race is incredibly tight, and it appears likely that a team with 10 or more wins will be left out of the playoffs. There is a little more separation in the AFC, but the AFC South and AFC West are set to beat each other up over the last month of the campaign.

Baltimore Ravens -6 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

There have been some epic slugfests between Baltimore and Pittsburgh over the last two decades. Most of their tilts have been close, low-scoring, hard-hitting affairs, but the Ravens are primed to blow the doors off the Steelers in this game.

Pittsburgh has lost five of its last seven games after a 4-1 start. The Steelers just haven’t been that good on either side of the ball, and it’s clear that Aaron Rodgers is frustrated. His only real receiving option is D.K. Metcalf, and Metcalf is the only Pittsburgh player with over 300 receiving yards through 12 games. The ground game has left a lot to be desired too, averaging just 4.0 YPC (25th in the NFL).

Lamar Jackson wasn’t at his best against Cincinnati on Thanksgiving, and he hasn’t fared particularly well against Pittsburgh in his career. However, Jackson will likely have a big day on Sunday afternoon considering almost his entire offense is healthy. Unlike past years, the Steelers cannot stop the run effectively, so that will allow the Baltimore offense to thrive.

Additionally, the Steelers will not be able to take advantage of Baltimore’s banged up defense. The Ravens have had to deal with a lot of injuries on that side of the ball, but the Steelers don’t have a mobile quarterback that can beat them with his legs nor do they have skill position players that can make plays against this secondary like we see with Cincinnati and other teams.

Green Bay Packers -6.5 vs. Chicago Bears

I try not to talk about sharp and square too much, but this is a game where most of the sharps are on Green Bay and most of the squares are on Chicago.

The media has been hyping up the Bears all week. Chicago is now the No. 1 seed in the NFC, and Ben Johnson is receiving all sorts of praise for the job he has done in his first year with the franchise. The Bears have won nine of their last ten games, and they are coming off a big road win over the defending Super Bowl champions.

However, many of Chicago’s wins have been over teams that are in disarray. Aside from last week’s win over Philadelphia, none of Chicago’s victories during this stretch have come against teams that are currently over .500. Both Dallas and Pittsburgh are right at the .500 mark, and neither team is likely to make the postseason. Furthermore, six of those nine Chicago wins were by five points or less.

Green Bay is coming off a big win over Detroit on Thanksgiving. The Packers were road underdogs in that game, but they prevailed over the Lions to pull within a half-game of the Bears in the NFC North race. Jordan Love was very good in the win, but the real story for Green Bay has been a defense that is among the best five units in the league.

The Packers rank fourth in total defense and fifth in yards per play. Green Bay has excelled in pass defense, allowing just 6.2 YPA, and the Packers rank second in the league in that category. They haven’t created as much havoc as they may have hoped with the addition of Micah Parsons, but he has helped make this unit elite.

Houston Texans +3.5 at Kansas City Chiefs

Everyone and their brother is betting on Kansas City this week. It seems unfathomable for the Chiefs to miss the playoffs after Patrick Mahomes has led them to seven straight AFC Championship Game appearances, but Kansas City has serious flaws. That’s why the Chiefs are 6-6 despite a +73 point differential.

On the surface, this still looks to be a solid team. The Kansas City offense ranks ninth in scoring offense and fifth in total offense, while the Kansas City defense seventh in scoring defense and ninth in total defense. The Chiefs rank first in fourth down offense and fourth down defense too. However, the defense is allowing a stunning 5.6 yards per play (23rd in the NFL) and ranks 26th in third down defense. Penalties have been an issue on both sides of the ball too.

Patrick Mahomes is great, but he will be hounded all night by one of the best pass rushes in the league. First-round draft pick Josh Simmons is on injured reserve due to a wrist injury, and right guard Trey Smith and right tackle Jawaan Taylor are doubtful to play. That’s a bad combination considering what we have seen from Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter in recent weeks. Houston’s two-deep is loaded with talent up front too, so expect Mahomes to be under a ton of pressure.

On the other side of the ball, Houston is finally somewhat healthy. C.J. Stroud returned to action last week, and that will allow the Texans to stretch the field with Nico Collins once more. Stroud’s offensive line is healthy too, so he should have time to make throws. Additionally, he is not a dome quarterback that will be uncomfortable in the cold after spending his collegiate career at Ohio State.

Kansas City does not have a lot of defensive depth. That’s particularly tough this time of year with nagging injuries building up and making players less effective. These issues played a role in the Chiefs’ defensive issues in November, as they uncharacteristically allowed at least 20 points in all four games, and there’s a good chance those problems allow Houston to pick up a huge win in Arrowhead Stadium.