Week 7 NFL Best Bets

Can the Pittsburgh Steelers avoid the fate of favorites recently on Thursday Night Football? The Los Angeles Rams fell to the San Francisco 49ers as 8.5-point home favorites per the NFL betting odds two weeks ago, and the Philadelphia Eagles suffered an embarrassing loss to the New York Giants despite being favored by more than a touchdown last week. Pittsburgh is not favored by as much as either of those two teams, and the Steelers have been somewhat fortunate despite their 4-1 start to the season.

Cincinnati Bengals +5.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

It was clear that Jake Browning wasn’t the answer under center for the Cincinnati Bengals following Joe Burrow’s injury. That’s what led to Cincinnati trading for veteran signal caller Joe Flacco, completing a deal with the Cleveland Browns for the first time in franchise history.

Flacco made his first start for Cincinnati last week against the Green Bay Packers. Green Bay was the biggest favorite of the week per the football betting odds, but Cincinnati kept it close and got the cover even with a limited install on offense considering how new Flacco was to the system. Flacco threw for 219 yards and two touchdowns, targeting star receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins a total of 20 times.

Mike Tomlin was hoping to face Browning and not a seasoned pro like Flacco, leading to some uncharacteristic comments from the long-time Pittsburgh head coach. Tomlin openly questioned what Cleveland was doing in essentially trading away a veteran quarterback to a division rival for nothing. Browning threw six touchdown passes and eight interceptions in his four games under center for the Bengals this season, while Flacco crucially did not turn the ball over in a cover against the Packers on Sunday.

Pittsburgh has won four of its first five games. The Steelers have not been particularly impressive on either side of the ball though. They are being outgained by almost 80 YPG on average, and the offense has been unable to do much on the ground. The Steelers rank 30th in the NFL with 3.4 YPC. Aaron Rodgers has yet to throw for more than 250 yards in a game this year as well.

Some are dubbing this the Icy Hot Bowl as Flacco and Rodgers are both in their 40s. This will only be the third game in NFL history where both starting quarterbacks were in their 40s with the other two tilts featuring Tom Brady and Drew Brees. Flacco will be able to do enough to keep the Bengals close and get the cover if not the outright win.

New England Patriots -7 at Tennessee Titans

The Tennessee Titans are awful. Tennessee might earn the No. 1 overall pick for the second straight season and just parted ways with Brian Callahan earlier this week. Callahan was not given a fair shake given the putrid state of this franchise, being let go not even halfway into his second year with the Titans. 

Mike McCoy is the interim coach for Tennessee and will be looking to prove himself. McCoy was the head coach of the San Diego Chargers for four years from 2013 to 2016, but he has bounced around as an assistant since being fired. He was 9-23 in his last two seasons with the Chargers despite having an elite quarterback in Philip Rivers.

Tennessee has much less talent than those Chargers’ teams that McCoy previously coached. The Titans don’t have a lot to work with on offense, putting rookie quarterback Cam Ward in a difficult position. Ward has felt like he has had to do way too much as a first-year starter, leading to a league-high eight turnovers through six games. Additionally, Ward has been sacked 25 times and isn’t much of a rushing threat. 

Enter former Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel. The 2021 NFL Head Coach of the Year was at the helm of the Titans for six years before the franchise felt they needed a change following the 2023 campaign. Vrabel made Tennessee competitive and led the Titans to four straight winning seasons despite not having a quality quarterback.

Vrabel is already working his magic in New England, as the Patriots have a 4-2 record with Drake Maye under center. He might look to put his foot on the gas a little against his former team, given New England really looks to be turning the corner over the last couple weeks.

Chicago Bears -5 vs. New Orleans Saints

Perhaps we were a little too quick to dismiss the Chicago Bears after an 0-2 start to the season. The Bears looked lost after a 52-21 loss to Detroit in Week 2, but they have since righted the ship with three straight victories ahead of their clash with the New Orleans Saints on Sunday. Chicago upset Dallas, Las Vegas, and Washington in that stretch, so now the Bears are favored for the first time since their season opener.

Caleb Williams is finally starting to put it together. The No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft was phenomenal in the win over the Cowboys and solid in the victories over the Raiders and Commanders. Williams has plenty of weapons to work with in the Windy City, and the offensive line has only allowed him to be sacked 10 times to this point.

Meanwhile, the New Orleans Saints are in complete disarray. This is a team that chose to fully rebuild after Derek Carr announced his retirement back in May, so it’s no surprise to see the Saints sitting at the bottom of the NFC standings with a 1-5 record. All of New Orleans’ five losses have been by at least five points, and the Saints have lost their two road games by a combined 43 points this season.

Spencer Rattler has just three touchdown passes in his last four starts. Rattler does at least have one good receiver to work with in Chris Olave, but Alvin Kamara is a shadow of his former self. Kamara is averaging just 3.8 YPC, and he is no longer the receiving threat he previously was out of the backfield for the Saints.