What Happens if Iran Withdraws from the World Cup? What Can FIFA Do?
Summary
With less than 100 days until the 2026 World Cup, Iran’s participation is uncertain due to geopolitical tensions, as its scheduled matches are in the U.S. If Iran withdraws or is banned, FIFA regulations impose heavy fines. A replacement would likely come from Asian Football Confederation teams, with Iraq or the United Arab Emirates as potential candidates based on qualifying results, or FIFA could appoint a team to maintain competitive balance.
If a withdrawal occurs after the tournament begins, no replacement would be added. Iran’s matches would be forfeited 3-0, disrupting Group C and reducing it to three teams. Historically, teams have withdrawn, as in 1950. However, the most probable outcome is that Iran will still compete, as major sporting events often find diplomatic solutions to avoid punishing athletes.
With less than 100 days before the 2026 World Cup, Iran’s participation remains uncertain amid the military conflict in the Persian Gulf.  Iran has already qualified and is drawn into Group C alongside Belgium, Egypt and New Zealand. But with all three matches scheduled in the U.S. and tensions high politically, what happens if Iran is banned from competing or decides not to go? Â
FIFA Regulations
According to FIFA, and Article 6 under the heading “Withdrawal, match not played, abandoned match and replacement,” any national team that withdraws from the competition faces a significant financial penalty and the possibility of additional sporting sanctions.
Article 6.2
“If a participating association withdraws from the FIFA World Cup 2026 no later than 30 days before the first match of the final competition, the FIFA Disciplinary Committee shall impose a minimum fine of $320,000.”
Fines can go even higher, reaching more than $600,000. Nations who withdraw at any stage will be on the hook for reimbursing funds to FIFA. Let’s explore what options there are for FIFA if Iran isn’t playing and how it would be decided who replaces Iran.
Who Replaces Iran?
Eight Asian nations have qualified for the World Cup. Saudi Arabia, Australia, Qatar, South Korea, Uzbekistan, Japan and Jordan, along with Iran. Iran’s replacement could ultimately be its neighbors. Iraq is currently scheduled to play an Intercontinental Playoff B, which offers an additional spot at the World Cup. Iraq will face the winner of the Bolivia vs. Suriname matchup in a single-game playoff for a place in this summer’s tournament in Mexico.
Scenario One: Iraq fails to qualify in the playoff and replaces Iraq because they are the AFC team that has gone the furthest in qualifying without clinching a berth.
Scenario Two: Iraq qualifies in the playoff and Iran’s spot goes to the United Arab Emirates, which lost to Iraq in the final stage of the Asian playoffs.
Scenario Three: FIFA has the authority to choose the replacement team as the governing body can pick a country it thinks can preserve the competitive balance of the tournament. This could also include a loser of the inter-confederation playoffs.
We’ve seen something similar recently as at the last Club World Cup, when Mexico’s León was excluded because it shared ownership with Pachuca. The final spot went to a playoff game between LAFC and Club América, with Los Angeles taking that spot.
Could FIFA Move Iran’s Games?
Some analysts have suggested another possibility. If Iran does decide to play and isn’t banned or replaced, FIFA could move their matches outside of the U.S. Right now, Iran is scheduled to play two matches in Los Angeles and one in Seattle. Could FIFA move Iran’s matches to Canada and Mexico? While the logistics could be a nightmare, it may help reduce the political tensions.
For this to happen, Canada and Mexico would have to agree and with time running out before the start of the World Cup, it would take a lot of moving parts to make it all work.
What Happens if Iran Withdraws After the Tournament Begins?
The situation could become even more complicated if Iran withdraws after the World Cup has started. According to FIFA rules:
- No replacement team would be added
- Iran’s matches would likely be forfeited 3–0
- The group standings would be adjusted accordingly
- This scenario would create a competitive imbalance in the group.
For example:
- Teams scheduled to play Iran could receive automatic wins.
- Goal difference could unfairly impact qualification for the knockout rounds.
- For this reason, FIFA would strongly prefer to resolve the issue before the tournament begins.
Impact on Group G
If Iran withdraws before kickoff and another team replaces them, Group G would remain intact.
But if no replacement is added, the group would shrink to three teams: Belgium, Egypt,
and New Zealand. This would dramatically change the group stage as each team would receive just two matches. FIFA would have to rework the tournament structure as 3rd place teams can still make the knockout stage. But this will also remove three games from the overall schedule, meaning multiple cities would lose games for those fans.
Has a Team Withdrawn from A World Cup Before?
In 1950, chaos ensued at the World Cup in Brazil. Several teams from around the world refused to take part in qualifying so that led to Turkey, Scotland and India qualifying for the tournament. But those teams all withdrew before the start citing costs and player registration issues.
Portugal was invited to replace Turkey but turned it down because of travel costs. The Portuguese had lost to Spain in qualifying and were simply chosen by FIFA as the logical European replacement. France also withdrew for the same reasons and FIFA re-invited Portugal once again, which was declined again. In the end, there were no replacements and the tournament went on with 13 teams instead of 16. Uruguay went on to win the World Cup.
And at the 1938 World Cup, Austria qualified but withdrew after its annexation by Nazi Germany. FIFA didn’t choose a replacement but Sweden, Austria’s opponents, were given a bye into the next round.
Likely Outcome
Despite all the speculation, the most likely outcome remains that Iran will still participate in the tournament. Major international sporting events often find diplomatic solutions to allow teams to compete. For the players, it may be their only opportunity to play at a World Cup and shouldn’t be punished for something out of their control.
