4 Key Stats For NFL Divisional Round Defensive Dominators

Just seven games remain in the NFL Playoffs and the conclusion of the 2025 season. Four of those are in this weekend’s Divisional Round, where the key late game Sunday has NFL weather to monitor in Chicago between the Bears and Rams. Both teams escaped with last-minute wins in last week’s Wild Card Round with the Bears 25-point 4th quarter giving them a 31-27 victory over rival Green Bay and Chicago’s 7th win this season when trailing in the final 2 minutes of the game. Now the four NFL Divisional Round games feature matchups where four teams have decided advantages in four key defensive stat categories.  

As you watch and wager on the games and place your proposition bets and player props beyond the spread, moneyline and totals on the Divisional Round games, check out BetOnline’s NFL news and betting insights including what’s next for the defending Super Bowl champions Philadelphia Eagles after they were eliminated in the Wild Card Round on their home field.

NFL Divisional Round Picks And Odds 

Pro football odds from BetOnline refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live/in-game betting. Point spreads listed on favorites. All times Eastern.

No. 6 Buffalo Bills at No. 1 Denver Broncos

Spread/Line: Broncos (-1.5), Total 46
Saturday, Jan. 17 | 4:30 p.m. | CBS

No. 6 San Francisco 49ers at No. 1 Seattle Seahawks

Spread/Line: Seahawks (-7), Total 45
Saturday, Jan. 17 | 8:00 p.m. | FOX

No. 5 Houston Texans at No. 2 New England Patriots

Spread/Line: Patriots (-3.5), Total 40.5
Sunday, Jan. 18 | 3:00 p.m. | ESPN/ABC

No. 5 Los Angeles Rams at No. 2 Chicago Bears

Spread/Line: Rams (-3.5), Total 48
Sunday, Jan. 18 | 6:30 p.m. | NBC

Defensive Dominators

If you like to bet on teams with stronger defenses, then your picks and wagers in the Divisional Round will include the Broncos and Seahawks on Saturday, and Texans andRams on Sunday. Clearly there are intangibles in place for teams in the playoffs with experience, coaching, situational edge (bye, home field, weather) and proven quarterback play like MVP favorite Matthew Stafford of the Rams and last year’s MVP Josh Allen of the Bills in their matchups against 2024 No. 1 overall draft pick Caleb Williams and No. 12 pick Bo Nix. The Patriots-Texans matchup features top drafted QB’s in No. 3 overall 2024 draft pick QB Drake Maye against the Texans No. 2 overall pick in the 2023 draft QB C.J. Stroud. The Seahawks have No. 2 overall 2018 draft pick Sam Darnold, who’s playing for his fifth team against 49ers 7th round 2022 pick Brock Purdy.   

But the matchups on the defensive side of the ball favor the Broncos, Seahawks, Texans and Rams in four key categories. 

• Points allowed
• Yards per play
• Total yardage, differential
• Yards per rush

In competitively-lined NFL games (6 points or less), if you bet on the team with the better defense in 3 or 4 of those statistical categories matchups from Week 8 on during the 2025 regular season, you won nearly 65% of your ATS bets on sample size of more than 80 games. Those teams with the Defensive Edge System (DES) in last weekend’s Wild Card Round went just 2-3 ATS. But one of the losses included the unlikely variance and remarkable Bears rally from a 21-6 halftime deficit and 27-16 with less than 3 minutes remaining in the game. Before Chicago’s stunning comeback win, NFL teams were just 3-158 all-time in the postseason when trailing by 15 or more points entering the fourth quarter, per Playbook Sports.

These four teams have defensive edges over their opponents in all four stat categories – Broncos, Seahawks, Texans and Rams. Adding those teams to any NFL futures bets including Super Bowl odds ahead of Divisional Round games provides some added value should they win with opportunities to consider a hedging parlay betting strategy should they win.

Yards per game = ypg and yards per rush = ypr  

Bills-Broncos

• Bills Defense: 21.6 points per game, 5.3 yards per play, 297 ypg, 5.2 ypr 
• Broncos Defense: 18.3 points per game, 4.5 yards per play, 278 ypg, 3.9 ypr

49ers-Seahawks

• 49ers Defense: 21.7 points per game, 5.5 yards per play, 338 ypg, 4.3 ypr
• Seahawks Defense: 17.2 points per game, 4.6 yards per play, 285 ypg, 3.7 ypr

Texans-Patriots

• Texans Defense: 16.7 points per game, 4.7 yards per play, 273 ypg, 4.0 ypr
• Patriots Defense: 17.9 points per game, 5.1 yards per play, 290 ypg, 4.2 ypr

Rams-Bears

• Rams Defense: 20.9 points per game, 5.2 yards per play, 328 ypg, 4.3 ypr
• Bears Defense: 14.6 points per game, 6.0 yards per play, 365 ypg, 5.0 ypr

Additional Stats

In addition to those four key defensive stats and categories, note some of the following stats in the four Divisional Round games. 

The Broncos defense is top-3 in many key categories and allow just a 7.7% explosive play rate – the fourth lowest of any defense since 2010. Broncos blitz at the 5th highest rate in the NFL and rank No. 5 against play-action passes. Denver’s dominant defense is just the 9th defense since 2000 to have a sack rate above 10 percent, averaging 4.0 sacks per game. Teams averaging at least 3.0 sacks per game are 45-26-1 ATS in the NFL Playoffs when not laying 7-points or more, per Dr. Bob Sports research team.

The Bills offense ranks 26th in the NFL against the blitz and run a high-percentage (3rd) of play-action passes. Facing the Broncos Cover 1 defense more often with the Bills worst set of receivers in the playoffs will be even more difficult with Denver’s strong cornerbacks and pressing defense. The Bills defense also allows a playoff-worst 5.2 yards per rush, and just allowed 154 yards rushing to the Jaguars at 6.7 yards per rush, but managed to escape with a last-second Wild Card win. Buffalo’s defense ranks No. 31 in EPA per rush allowed, and now faces the Broncos league-best offensive line with the most efficient pass-blocking unit and the league’s best pass blocker (Garett Bolles) as voted on by Pro Football Focus’ expert research staff following the 2025 regular season.    

The 49ers are playing their 5th game in 27 days and on a short week again after winning on the road last week at Philadelphia despite getting outrushed 140-75. The Niners rushed for just 3.4 yards per rush without TE George Kittle on the field this season, and he’s out after suffering a torn Achilles in the win over Philadelphia last week.

The Seahawks also shut down 49ers star RB Christian McCaffrey (23 yards) in a 13-3 Week 18 road win, and Seattle’s strong defense allowed a league-low -.21 EPA per rush this season despite playing nickel defense at the second-highest rate in the league. The Niners have more playoff experience and coaches in this playoff position with masterful head coach Kyle Shanahan, but the Seahawks first-year head coach Mike McDonald was the defensive coordinator of the Ravens during their playoff runs and No. 1 defense in 2022-23. The Seahawks are far healthier, off a bye and extra rest and preparation and No. 1 in DVOA with the league’stop receiver and NFL Offensive Player of the Year finalist (AP), Jaxson Smith-Njigba. The Seahawks are the most popular teaser bet in the Divisional Round and most-likely team to win and advance.    

The Patriots played the easiest strength of schedule (SOS) while the Texans played the 4th toughest and still ranked No. 1 defensively in EPA per play, expected points added per play and EPA per pass. The Texans also rank No. 3 in DVOA behind the Seahawks and Rams. Houston is riding a 10-game winning streak and 13-2 SU since losing their first three games of the season. Still, playoff teams that have won 8 or more games in a row are 25-41 ATS (but Houston won and covered last week in the Wild Card Round). The market opened New England -2.5 then went to -3 after a top sports service released the Patriots as a play and noted home field is stronger in the playoffs and the Texans are playing without top WR Nico Collins (concussion). Now it’s Patriots -3.5 showing market efficiency correction with the smart, sharp side on New England and the dark side QB/Coach and dominant defense hoping for Houston. Field position and turnovers will be key, as is the case in many playoff games. Texans kicker Fairbairn gives the Texans a leg-up in a close contest where execution and efficiency leads to victory.  

The Bears defense is the worst of all playoff teams statistically, and are -0.3 in yards per play margin and rank No. 16 in DVOA. The Bears are No. 29 in the NFL in yards per play defense (6.0), bottom-5 in run defense (5.1 ypr) and face the Rams No. 2 yards per play offense (6.1) led by the league’sbest position players, MVP favorite QB Matthew Stafford and top receiver and Pro Football Focus’ Offensive Player of the Year, Puka Nacua. Stafford is nursing a sprained finger on his throwing hand in last week’s Wild Card win. The Bears remarkable rally and upset win over division rival Packers in the Wild Card Round sets them up in a negative letdown situation that is 26-82 ATS including 1-14 ATS in the post season, according to Dr. Bob Sports. The Steelers qualified in that situation last week off their upset home win over the Ravens in Week 18, and Pittsburgh got pounded in defeat to the Texans in the Wild Card Round. Bitter cold temps in Chicago and more running the ball than projected by both teams. Cold weather teams are 44-34 ATS against dome teams since 2010 including 43-27 ATS as ‘Dog to -9 favorite and 24-11 ATS in non-division games. The Bears are 24-15 ATS at home from Week 10 on versus dome or warm-weather teams in the last 20 seasons. Those are notable angles and trends, but the stats, strength and support is still on the Rams.      

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