Best Bets for NFL Week 8, Revenge for Rodgers vs. Packers?

Dallas Cowboys (3-3-1) at Denver Broncos (5-2) – 4:25 p.m. EST

Cowboys 

Dak Prescott has been the main reason the Cowboys have been successful throwing for 1,881 yards with 16 touchdowns, both putting him second in the NFL in each category.  With CeeDee Lamb back, Prescott has two key receivers with George Pickens, who has a team high 607 yards and six touchdowns. The ground game has been productive too, Javonte Williams has 592 yards and six TDs on 111 carries. But the Cowboys aren’t good away from home, just 1-3 so far this season.  James Houston’s 3.5 sacks has put pressure on opposing QBs but key injuries to linemen Kenny Clark and Marshawn Kneeland will be a big loss against Bo Nix.

Broncos 

Bo Nix and the Broncos have been a surprise this season as the second-year QB has 1,556 yards and 11 touchdowns and has been able to spread the ball to multiple targets including 

WR Courtland Sutton who has 469 yards and three scores.  J.K. Dobbins has been powering the run game with 523 yards and four touchdowns. Linebacker Nik Bonitto has 8 sacks, second most in the NFL and the defense has shut down teams late in games.  While they had a historic comeback to beat the Giants last week in stunning fashion, there are some holes on this squad.

Prediction

Any team that plays in Denver has to deal with the altitude and that, plus their defensive strengths gives the Broncos the advantage. But the Cowboys can score points (31.7), second best in the league.  Prescott and his high-octane offense keep it close, but home field advantage prevails.  BEST BET:  Cowboys +3.5

New York Giants (2-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-2) – 1:00 p.m. EST

There is renewed hope in New York, as Jaxson Dart has thrown for 791 yards with seven touchdowns and Cam Skattebo has run for 398 yards and five scores, the Giants have managed to fumble away wins including last week in Denver. Still, the team looks different under the rookie led offense as Wan’Dale Robinson takes over as WR1 in the absence of Malik Nabers.  The defense played well for three quarters before giving up 33 points in the final 15 and now deal with injuries as the list is long:  Anthony Johnson Jr. (PUP), Brian Burns (Q), Paulson Adebo (Q), Jevon Holland (Q).

After a couple of losses the Eagles bounced back against the Vikings last week.  Jalen Hurts  continues to play well using a balanced attack of run and pass.  The QB has 1,498 yards with 11 touchdowns and one interception. Interestingly, Saquon Barkley has just 369 rushing yards and four touchdowns, and hasn’t rushed for 100-yards in any game this season.  Could his breakout come against his former team?

Prediction

While the Eagles have won 5 games, none have been by more than a touchdown.  On the flip side, the Giants are 4-3 ATS this season and have suffered two, one-score losses including last week’s heartbreaker in Denver.  A divisional game, with a new outlook with a rookie quarterback should keep this one interesting and close.  Can you say backdoor cover?  BEST BET:  Giants +7.5

Green Bay (4-1-1) at Pittsburgh (4-2) – 8:20 p.m. EST

For the first time since being traded by the Packers, Aaron Rodgers faces his former team, and it’ll happen on the biggest stage of the week; Sunday Night Football. Rodgers will try to become just the fifth quarterback in NFL history to beat all 32 teams.

Packers 

Green Bay has one of the most heavy run playbooks in the NFL as they rush the ball at the third highest rate. Josh Jacobs has the fourth most carries (111) this season and has scored 8 rushing TDs, second most behind Jonathan Taylor.  Jordan Love leads a balanced attack as he’s thrown for 1,438 yards, 10 touchdowns and only two interceptions on 69 percent passing. Tucker Kraft, who has scored four TDs and Jacobs have been potent in the red-zone.  The front seven has been productive as GB allows the sixth fewest yards (288.5) per game and are No. 2 against the run, giving up just 76.5 YPG. Rashan Gary and Micah Parsons each have recorded 5.5 sacks while linebacker Quay Walker leads the team with 59 tackles.

Steelers

The Steelers success has relied on veteran quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who’s thrown 14 touchdown passes through six games. At 40, the former Packer can still read defenses at an elite level and has receivers like DK Metcalf and his tight end Pat Freiermuth that he can trust.  The pair have combined for 593 yards and 6 TDs.  While Jaylen Warren is the main back, rushing for 311 yards, he hasn’t scored leaving the burden on Rodgers through the air. Defensively, LB Nick Herbig leads the team with 4.5 sacks while LB Patrick Queen is the main anchor in the middle.  But the run defense has been a major concern with several key injuries.  The Bengals, who had the worst run game entering Week 7, managed to rack up 142 yards on the Steelers.  Now they take a Packers team that has been averaging 30 carries per game.

Packers/Steelers Trends

• Green Bay is 20-17 against the Steelers (including the postseason).
• The Packers are 7-9 at Pittsburgh and looking for its first win in the city since 1970.
• Sports betting fact: Seven of the last eight games in Pittsburgh have been decided by single digits.
• Including Super Bowl XLV, Green Bay has scored 27-plus points in five of the last six matchups against Pittsburgh.
• The Packers are 0-3 ATS on the road this season.
• The Steelers are 2-1 ATS at home this season.

Prediction

The Steelers offense has been a bit of a surprise this season but the pass protection for Rodgers hasn’t been good as Pittsburgh’s pass block win rate is the worst in the league.  That doesn’t bode well against a Packers team coming off a 6 sack performance against Arizona where Micah Parsons recorded three sacks and five QB hits.  I expect a run-heavy game for both sides and that leads to a lower scoring game.  BEST BET:  UNDER 45

Player Prop Picks

Rodgers has averaged over two touchdown passes per game this season, and has gone over 1.5 TDs in four of his six games thus far. Green Bay has allowed multiple TD passes in three straight games and four of five, including to veteran Joe Flacco a few weeks ago and Jacoby Brissett last week.  You know Rodgers will want to put on a show against his former team.  BEST BET: Rodgers OVER 1.5 Pass TDs (-128)