College Basketball’s Top 10 National Championship Contenders
Summary
As football season concludes, attention shifts to college basketball’s final stretch and the upcoming NCAA Tournament. Top teams from major conferences are nearing the end of their regular seasons, setting the stage for March Madness, which attracts significant viewership and betting activity.
Analysis using KenPom’s efficiency metrics identifies eight teams currently ranked in the top 20 for both offense and defense, a key historical indicator of championship potential. These include Arizona, Duke, Iowa State, Houston, Michigan, Illinois, Florida, and Vanderbilt. Arizona, Michigan, and Duke are also the current betting favorites to win the national title.
The college basketball season is pushing towards the finish with the Super Bowl on Feb. 8 marking the most-watched and wagered game of the year. But as football comes to a close, fans and bettors will focus on college basketball and the next biggest sporting event of the year – the men’s college basketball NCAA Tournament. The top teams in the Big Ten and SEC, along with the Big 12, Big East, and ACC, have less than 10 games remaining ahead of the conference tournaments in early March. Those teams and conferences will draw the most-watched and wagered action through March Madness, and also provide the top 10 list of college basketball’s national championship contenders more than one month ahead of the NCAA Tournament.Â
Looking back at the top college basketball games in November provided a glimpse of some of the top teams in the country. Many top teams played in the new Players Era Championship tournament in Las Vegas, where current No. 2 Michigan (20-1) crushed No. 6 Gonzaga (22-1) in the title game, with top 10 teams Iowa State (20-2) and Houston (19-2) also playing well along with top 25 St. John’s and Tennessee.
Arizona started the season ranked No. 13, but the Wildcats beat then No. 3 Florida at another November event in Las Vegas and two weeks later went on the road to beat current No. 3 Connecticut (21-1) to hand the Huskies their only loss of the season. Arizona (22-0) has since risen to No. 1 in the country while remaining undefeated. Two other November matchups at Madison Square Garden for the Champions Classic saw current-ranked teams Duke (No. 2) beat Kansas (No. 11), and two weeks later, the Blue Devils beat Florida (No. 17) by 1 point. Current No. 10 Michigan State also beat top 30 Kentucky by double-digits in New York before falling at home to Duke three weeks later, 66-60.
Profiles Of a National Champion
KenPom.com is an advanced stats website that provides statistics and metrics for every Division 1 team in the nation. The KenPom rankings help break down teams on a possession-by-possession basis, analyzing the offensive and defensive performance per 100 possessions.
A Net Rating (Adjusted Efficiency Margin) provides an overall ranking of teams.
The stats and rankings are adjusted during each week of games, with Ken Pomeroy providing updates on Tuesday and Friday.Â
What has stood out when determining a college basketball national champion is the ranking of top teams in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. That’s because 22 of the last 23 National Champions have finished in the Top 20 in both these KenPom categories.
This year’s teams currently include:
- Arizona (4 Offense/2 Defense)
- Duke (5/3)
- Iowa State (6/6)
- Houston (8/8)
- Michigan (11/1)
- Illinois (1/19)
- Florida (13/7)
- Vanderbilt (14/17)
So there are 8 teams that currently fit the profile of a national champion, with a handful of others close and capable of moving up to the top 20 in both categories: Iowa (20/21), Purdue (2/26), and Connecticut (25/5).Â
Other teams to consider and watch their play down the closing stretch of the season include Nebraska (23/11), Virginia (17/22), Gonzaga (30/13), Kansas (33/9), Louisville (16/27), St. John’s (26/18), Tennessee (34/14), and a non-power conference program, St. Louis (29/25).
Last year, four of the six teams with top 20 adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency ratings just before the NCAAT started made the Final Four (all No. 1 seeds). Florida (1 offense, 10 defense) beat Houston (10/2) in the national championship game, with Duke (3/4) and Auburn (2/12) also making the Final Four.Â
Another evaluation to watch is the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings, which provides teams’ records against top-quality opponents (Quad 1) and other teams to provide net efficiency ratings adjusted for strength of opponent and location. Arizona (10-0), Michigan (7-0), and Duke (9-1) currently have the best records against top-tier Quad 1 opponents with Iowa State, UCONN and Gonzaga 5-1 and even St. Louis (2-0) showing statistical strength out of the Atlantic 10 conference despite playing a schedule strength ranked outside the top 125. Â
National Championship Odds
Using the stats and profiles of those top teams, here are the current odds as of Feb. 5 to win the college basketball national championship from top online sportsbook BetOnline, along with each team’s NET ranking.Â
+450: Arizona (1)
+525: Michigan (3)
+600: Duke (2)
+1000: Houston (7)
+1200: Illinois (4), UCONN (6)
+1400: Florida (11)
+1600: Iowa State (5)
+1800: Kansas (12)
+2500: Nebraska (10)
+2800: Purdue (8)
+3300: Texas Tech (21)
+4000: Gonzaga (9)
+5000: Alabama (23), Michigan State (13)
+5000: St. John’s (24), Vanderbilt (14)
+5500: Arkansas (26)
+6600: BYU (17), Louisville (18), Tennessee (20)
+7500: Virginia (16)
+8000: North Carolina (27), Kentucky (28), NC State (25), Texas A&M (36)
+10000-15000: Iowa (19), Auburn (30), St. Louis (15), Clemson (31), Wisconsin (43), UCF (42)
Check out the latest sports betting news, plus daily college basketball matchups and spreads, moneylines, and totals as you watch and wager on the games. BetOnline is a leader in setting the lines and providing a large menu of betting options for all major sports, including the most popular college basketball.
You can bet on it.
