Best, Worst Case Draws for Mexico at World Cup 2026

Mexico will host the World Cup for the third time, but in 2026, it will co-host alongside Canada and the US.  El Tri reached the quarterfinals on home soil in 1970 and 1986.    Mexico hopes the third time is the charm for an even deeper run at home.  But first, the World Cup group stage draw.

Draw Format:  

• The 48 teams will be divided into four pots of 12, with the hosts joining FIFA’s top nine in seeded places for the tournament.

• Pots 2, 3, and 4: The teams are then sorted into the pots by ranking, with the six teams qualifying through the playoffs placed in Pot 4.

• The three hosts in Pot 1 have pre-determined groups. Mexico is in Group A, Canada is in Group B, and the United States in Group D.

• With UEFA fielding 16 teams and only 12 different groups, it is inevitable that European teams will face off within the same group. But UEFA is the only confederation where that is possible. No other confederation will have more than a single member nation in the 12 groups.

Mexico Best Case Scenario  – Austria (24), Ivory Coast (41), New Zealand (86) 

Having Austria instead of Croatia would be fine for El Tri, and the two sides have never met in international play. Having a home pitch advantage is also a good thing for Mexico.

Next up, the Ivory Coast is the lowest-ranked nation in Pot 3.  The African team did beat Mexico in their only meeting when the team consisted of Didier Drogba and Yaya Touré.

And rounding up Mexico’s most favorable draw would be having New Zealand in the group, as the Kiwis are ranked 86th in the world.  Mexico has won 7 of 8 meetings, with the loss coming back in 1980.

Mexico Worst Case Scenario  –  Croatia (10), Egypt (34), Italy (12)

Croatia was the runner-up in 2018 and reached the semifinals in 2022.  They will prove to be the toughest test of any nation in Pot 2.  

Mohamed Salah was very impressive for Egypt during qualification, scoring 9 goals as the Pharaohs potted 19 goals in nine games.  They missed out in 2022 and will look to make noise regardless of which group they’re in.

Italy has to go through a playoff, and assuming they get in, the four-time world champs will be a stern test for Mexico.  Ranked 12th, they would likely be the favorites in this group.

Other Potential Threats 

Just like any other group, it’s the luck of the draw for Mexico.  But there could be several tough opponents depending on the draw.  Here’s a list of other nations Mexico could face.

2026 World Cup Draw

POT 1 

POT 2

POT 3

POT 4

Conclusion

Regardless of their opponents, Mexico has proven it can win on home soil at this tournament.  What is concerning heading to 2026 is El Tri has regressed to end 2025, going 0-2-4 in the last 6 games. The last win came back in July when they won the Gold Cup.