NFL WEEK 15 BEST BETS: MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

MIAMI DOLPHINS AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-3, O/U: 42.5)

THE HISTORY

Considering that these two teams owned the 1970s, along with the Dallas Cowboys, you’d think they’d have a little more history in the 45 years since the NFL and AFL merged. But, surprisingly, this will just be the 30^th all-time meeting between the two teams, and Pittsburgh holds a 15-14 advantage in the head-to-head record. Four of those meetings have been in the playoffs, and in 1972 and 1984, those meetings came in the AFC Championship games. They last squared up on Oct. 23, 2022, with the Dolphins taking a 16-10 victory. Tua Tagovailoa was 21 of 35 passing for 261 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions in the win. Raheem Mostert, now with the Las Vegas Raiders, rushed 16 times for 79 yards. Mostert added four receptions for 30 yards and a TD. Tyreek Hill caught seven passes for 72 yards. Jaelen Phillips, now with the Philadelphia Eagles, finished with 1.5 sacks.

In the loss, Kenny Pickett, also now with the Raiders, was 32 of 44 for 257 yards, one T.D, and three picks. Najee Harris, now with the Los Angeles Chargers, had 17 rushes for 65 yards. Pat Friermuth caught eight balls for 75 yards. George Pickens, now with the Dallas Cowboys, hauled in six receptions for 61 yards and a score. The Steelers did not record a sack in the game. 

MIAMI DOLPHINS (6-7)

The Dolphins stretched their winning streak to four, knocking off the hapless New York Jets 34-10 last week. Tua Tagovailoa was 13 of 21 for 127 yards, one TD, and no picks. He was sacked once. Jaylen Wright rushed 24 times for 107 yards and a touchdown. De’Von Achane had seven carries for 92 yards and a score. Ollie Gordon added a touchdown. Jaylen Waddle hauled in five passes for 50 yards and a score. The defense held the Jes to just 65 total yards on the ground, picked off Brady Cook twice, and sacked him six times.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (7-6)

Pittsburgh changed up their narrative, taking back control of the AFC North with a 27-22 win over the reeling Baltimore Ravens a week ago. Aaron Rodgers really put the Ivermectin to the Ravens, going 23 of 34 passing for 284 yards, one TD, and no interceptions. He added a touchdown on the ground and did not get sacked. The offense only picked up 34 total yards on the ground, but Kenneth Gainwell did score. DK Metcalf caught seven passes for 148 yards. Jaylen Warren rushed eight times for 13 yards and caught three passes for 49 yards and a TD. The defense picked Lamar Jackson off once and sacked him twice.

BEST BETS

Mike McDaniel’s comeback for the Dolphins this season cannot be overstated. The man looked cooked two months ago, and not only has he seemingly saved his job, but he’s also got Miami right outside the current playoff bracket. They need to win out and get some help, but it’s the second week in December, and his team is still alive. That’s really something. 

Back in the Friday Afternoon Quarterback, I picked the Steelers to win 24-20, which means they’d cover and hit the over. Here, a few days later, I’m feeling less confident on the spread, but very confident on the over. TJ Watt will miss the game after complications from a deep needling procedure that landed him in the emergency ward and required surgery. I’m thinking that alone might flip the result. It’s a crazy turn of events, and we can just hope Watt recovers fully. 

For the Steelers, I like Pat Friermuth and Jaylen Warren to score touchdowns. That pays at +750.

On the Dolphins’ side, I think Jaylen Waddle will surpass 55.5 yards receiving and score a TD. That’ll pay you at +320.

And zeroing in on our QBs, if Tua Tagovailoa passes for more than 204.5 yards and Aaron Rodgers goes for more than 211.5 yards, it’ll pay at +230.Follow Adam Greene on Blue Sky @AdamGreene13, threads @adam.greene and Twitter @TheFirstMan