Top 3 Best Bets In College Football Conference Championship Games

Time for some big game betting as nine conference championship games provide major watch and wager action Dec. 5-6. The headliner is the Big Ten battle between undefeated teams No. 1 ranked Ohio State (11-0) and Indiana (11-0) on Saturday, Dec. 6, which will be one of the most watched and wagered games of the season ahead of the 12-team College Football Playoff. 

College Football Championship Game Best Bets

Friday, Dec. 5

UNLV (+4.5 / 5) at Boise State, total 58.5 points – 8pm ET on FOX

This line is up from Boise State -3 opener, and this championship game is played on the blue turf in Boise, Idaho. The UNLV Rebels (10-2 / 6-2 MWC) and Boise State Broncos (8-4 / 6-2 MWC) meet for the third straight season in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. The Rebels and Broncos won the 4-team metrics tiebreaker on top over New Mexico and San Diego State. That despite New Mexico winning a thrilling 40-35 game over UNLV in Las Vegas, and San Diego State running over Boise State 17-7 with 277 rushing yards. Boise State was the strong preseason favorite (-160) to win the MWC title, while UNLV (+700) was supposed to fall back this season. But veteran first-year UNLV head coach Dan Mullen has led the rejuvenated Rebels to the top again. The offensive explosion and early-season high-scoring wins and escapes was led by Mountain West Conference Offensive Player of the Year Anthony Colandrea. He led the MWC in passing with 3,050 yards at 8.7 yards per pass and 22 passing touchdowns. The junior transfer from Virginia also rushed for 8 touchdowns.   

There is no denying that the Broncos buried the Rebels 56-31 in mid-October adding to their dominance over UNLV the past three seasons. But that Broncos win was with Maddox Madsen at quarterback, and he’s since been injured with Boise State far from the same team since scoring just 24 points against lowly Nevada, and 7 points in road losses to both Fresno State and San Diego State. UNLV’s defense was a sieve most the season, but improved in November holding four conference opponents to 10, 26, 10 and 17 points while going 4-0. That included a big rivalry win last week in Reno over Nevada, 42-17. Outdoor game in Boise with 40 degree temperatures and a 60% chance of rain will keep us off the ‘over’ for a high scoring game. But the Rebels winning profile on offense is balance and efficiency averaging 196 rushing yards per game at 5.6 yards per rush, 261 passing yards per game with their 6.1 yards per play and 37.1 points per game ranking top 10 in the country. Boise State was a 13-point favorite over UNLV in October and won by 25. The oddsmakers and top online sportsbook BetOnline are telling us they believe this is not the same matchup and UNLV is more prepared. Boise State’s reputation and home field success is carrying the weight, but this is an even fight making the underdog live.   

Sat., Dec. 6

BYU vs Texas Tech (-12.5), 49.5

This Big 12 championship game kicks off the Saturday conference championship schedule at 12pm on FOX on a neutral field in Arlington – the home state of the Texas Tech Red Raiders. Make no mistake, this Texas Tech team (11-1 / 8-1 Big 12) can win it all at current odds of +850 to win the College Football Playoff. The Red Raiders already buried BYU 29-7 in Lubbock a month ago at this same point spread. Brigham Young (11-1 / 8-1) must win to make the CFP, but that won’t happen, unless BYU adds substantially to their +12 turnover margin. Texas Tech is still likely to make the 12-team College Football Playoff field if they happen to give the game away, which would take a spot from a top SEC team. The bottom line, and oil money (NIL), is that Texas Tech has the “best team money can buy”. Much of that was spent on the Red Raiders dominant defense line, which holds opponents to a nation-low 71 rushing yards per game at 2.4 yards per rush and just 266 total yards per game. That includes shutting down BYU to just 255 yards and 67 rushing yards in their 29-7 win over the Cougars Nov. 8. Lay it if you play it on another big win for the Red Raiders, who have beaten 11 opponents including BYU by at least 22 points this season. 

Indiana (+4 / 4.5) vs Ohio State, 48 – 8pm on FOX  

This line is down from Ohio State -6 for the championship game on a neutral field at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana. A Big Ten battle of unbeatens with No. 1 ranked Ohio State and No. 2 Indiana both 12-0, and likely the most watched and wagered game ahead of the College Football Playoff. Win or lose, both teams are expected to be top-4 seeds and have a bye in the upcoming College Football Playoff. This massive showdown also features two Heisman Trophy favorites in Indiana QB Fenando Mendoza (+165) and Ohio State’s Julian Sayin (+170), who are also the two most-efficient quarterbacks in college football (Sayin 184.8 passer rating, Mendoza 183.7) leading into the College Football Playoff. This is Indiana’s first ever conference championship game. Let’s start with an interesting betting angle from Playbook Sports and their historical data base. Ahead of the line move, Indiana fit this ATS system profile. In a game between undefeated teams from Game 10 out, underdogs of 5 or more points are 10-1 ATS if they allow 14.5 or fewer points per game. The Buckeyes (8.5 ppg) and Hoosiers (11.9 ppg) are defensive dominators, also allowing just 206 and 267 yards per game at 3.7 and 4.5 yards per play. The Hoosiers have played a stronger schedule with a top 10 offense averaging 466 yards per game (6.8 yards per play) to Ohio State’s 419 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play. Since the Buckeyes opening week win over No. 1 Texas 14-7, they have been the No. 1 team in the country and outscored all other opponents by at least 18 points while becoming the first team since the 1975 Florida Gators to hold all opponents to less than 17 points. But the Buckeyes only played two teams ranked in the Top 25 of the College Football Playoff poll, and that includes the biggest rivalry game last week when the Buckeyes buried big blue in the Big House at Michigan. Ohio State will now play 4-straight if they make it to the CFP championship game again as defending national champions. But Indiana counters with dominance of a +33 margin of victory this season while also winning at CFP entrant Oregon 30-20 and ranking No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of schedule metric.

For more college football coverage including the top SEC teams and those quarterbacks leading their teams to the College Football Playoff, check out my sports and betting coverage and additional sports betting news at BetOnline