Top 3 NFL Week 16 Games, Tips, Totals And Teasers

Big game betting kicked off NFL Week 16, and the Rams-Seahawks 38-37 overtime thriller was the game of the year in the regular season. Seattle’s 4th quarter comeback from 30-14 with a 3% chance to win per Next Gen Stats ended with a game-tying touchdown and 2-point conversion to win in overtime. The Seahawks (12-3) are now leading many top quality NFC teams in the push for the No. 1 playoff seed and first round bye with the Rams (11-4), 49ers (10-4), Bears (10-4) Packers (9-3-1) and defending Super Bowl champions Eagles (9-5) making the NFC the deeper conference with top quality teams and a -2.5 point favorite over the AFC for bettors adding NFL futures and prop bets including for Super Bowl LX Feb. 8, 2026. 

Check out more outrageous Next Gen Stats for Week 16 as you watch and wager on the action and review the Top 3 NFL games on Saturday and Sunday. 

• 1. Green Bay at Chicago (-1.5), total O/U 46.5 points. 

The line has flipped from the Bears being a slight underdog to a slight home favorite for this first-place NFC North showdown. These teams played two weeks ago on Dec. 7, and the Packers prevailed with a 28-21 win despite the Bears running 16 more plays and 33 minutes of time possession, but the Packers’ offense was more efficient. A Fairy Tail season for the Bears under new head coach Ben Johnson, the former Lions offensive coordinator. The Bears’ last-to-first improvement from 5 wins and a 1-11 finish last season has been driven by their ability to dominate the turnover battle. The Bears rank No. 1 overall in the NFL with a +20 net turnovers. The next closest is the Texans (+14), while the Packers are +3. The improved play of second-year QB Caleb Williams and far fewer sacks against him has led the Bears’ top-5 offense at 369 yards per game. Chicago’s running game is No. 1 in the NFC, averaging 152 ypg, including 187 rushing ypg over their last three games against the top half of the league run defenses of the Ravens, Packers, and Browns.  Green Bay suffered a massive loss last week with the season-ending ACL injury to dominant edge defender and rusher Michah Parsons. Both teams may be missing key wide receivers, so monitor the injury reports. The Packers do have a +1.2 net yards per play differential, and qualify with positive ATS betting results with the better defensive stats in yards per play, points, yards per rush, and total yards allowed. Of course, the NFL weather needs to be monitored in Chicago with freezing temperatures near 20 mpg, 15+ mph winds gusting up to 30 miles per hour. Play: Under the game total and Tease Packers. 

• 2. Tampa Bay (-3) at Carolina, O/U 45.5 points. 

Another first-place showdown in the NFC South with the Buccaneers (7-7) and Panthers (7-7) pushing for the playoffs, with only the division winner getting into the postseason party. Both teams have a negative point differential, with the Bucs scoring 23.4 points per game and allowing 25.3 ppg. The Panthers average just 18.9 ppg to rank No. 28 in the NFL, and allow 22.6 points per game. Tampa Bay has been operating for weeks without key personnel, but now has key offensive players at wide receiver (2) and running back in place for this big division duel. The Bucs are 5-0 SU over the Panthers with QB Baker Mayfield directing the offense. Tough to get behind the Panthers at times with bumbling QB Bryce Young, but their offensive approach has stabilized, leaning to ball control and efficiency rather than trying to win shootouts they’re not built for. Thus, the Panthers will rely more on their running game and ball control, along with their defense, which is more disciplined at home, and beat the Rams as a big home ‘Dog while rushing 40 times to 21 for Los Angeles. Both teams are stumbling to the finish with the Bucs losing 5-of-6 and the Panthers 3 of their last 5 games, including each team losing to the last-place Saints the past two weeks. These teams play again in Week 18, and the Panthers pull out round 1 at home as ‘Dog. Play: Panthers and Under the game total plus Tease Panthers.

• 3. Jacksonville at Denver (-3.5), 47

AFC division leaders collide with the Broncos (12-2) leading the way for the No. 1 seed in the playoffs and a first-round bye. The Jaguars (10-4) are holding a 1-game division lead over the Texans, with Jacksonville riding a 5-game winning streak, with three of those wins over the terrible Titans, Jets, and Cardinals. Denver is 7-0 at Empower Field at Mile High and the only undefeated team at home, where they allow just 16.7 points per game. The Broncos ride an 11-game winning streak, including 6-straight one-score wins. Quarterback Bo Nix has really stepped up his game over the past month while ranking 5th in EPA/play over his last four games. Nix should have time to target underrated WR Courtland Sutton (prop: over receiving yards), who has been targeted 10 times each of the past two games with 62 and 113 receiving yards last week against the Packers. Jaguars’ top defender DE Hines-Allen should be contained by Broncos LT Bolles, who leads the league in pass blocking efficiency. Play: Broncos and Over the game total.  

Also note the playoff contenders and matchups between:

• Pittsburgh at Detroit (-7), 52
• New England at Baltimore (-3), 49 – Prime Time Sunday Night Football

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