Top 3 Player Props For Colts-49ers Week 16 Monday Night Football Feature
Summary
Monday Night Football features the Colts visiting the 49ers, with San Francisco favored by six points. The 49ers are pushing for the NFC’s top seed, while the Colts have lost four straight. Key player props include betting on Phillip Rivers’ longest pass staying under 27.5 yards and Brock Purdy throwing for over 243.5 yards against a depleted Colts secondary.
The broader NFC playoff race remains intense, with multiple teams like the Seahawks, Rams, and Bears vying for position. Several upcoming Week 17 games, including Detroit at Minnesota and Chicago at San Francisco, will critically impact the postseason picture.
Following big game betting in Saturday’s Week 16 Packers-Bears brawl at Soldier Field and the Bears’ 22-16 overtime win, the Monday Night Football feature features Indianapolis (8-6) at San Francisco (10-4) and two more teams pushing for the playoffs. The 49ers are a 6-point favorite with a game total of 46 points. But beyond the spread, moneyline and totals, bettors are adding favorite proposition bets and player props. That includes a 44-year-old QB, Phillip Rivers, making his second start for the Colts after nearly 5 years away from pro football. Indianapolis has lost 4-straight games and failed to score more than 20 points in any of those contests.
The 49ers can still claim the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs by sweeping their final three games. That includes two final home games against the Bears and Seattle Seahawks (12-3), who won a thrilling 38-37 game over the LA Rams in overtime to kick off Week 16 action Thursday night. The Seahawks (12-3), Rams (11-4) and 49ers (10-4) are all battling for the NFC West division title and provide three quality teams to the deep NFC joining the Bears (11-4), Packers (9-5-1), defending Super Bowl champions Eagles (10-5) and potentially the Detroit Lions (8-6), who are a 7-point favorite over the Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday and will be favored on the road at Minnesota on Christmas Day.
The Bears-Lions Week 18 game in Chicago is another big game in the closing weeks that will determine playoff teams and positions. So will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7) at Carolina Panthers (7-7) on Sunday, Dec. 22, as those teams determine the NFC South champion and playoff entrant and meet again in Tampa in Week 18.
Colts-49ers Player Props
- QB Phillip Rivers – Longest pass under 27.5 yards
Out of pro football for nearly 5 years, Phillip Rivers’ first start back last week wasn’t too bad. Considering it was on the road at top team Seattle as a 14-point ‘Dog, Rivers managed the game and had the Colts in position to win. Indy took a late lead before a last-second Seahawks field goal got Seattle an 18-16 win. in the final minute. Rivers finished with 127 passing yards with a TD pass and one interception on the last play of the game, with no chance. He wasn’t efficient, but the game plan was designed to run the ball, and we had a prop bet winner on RB Jonathan Taylor over 19.5 rushes, and he produced 87 yards on 25 carries. Rivers had a 4.7-yard average depth of target in the 18-16 last-second loss to the Seahawks. For reference, 42-year-old Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers has the league-low air yards per attempt at 5.6 this season. Still, Rivers’ QB and football IQ are elite, and his quick-trigger approach paid dividends last week on throws released in 2.5 seconds or less, with Rivers completing 14 of 18 passes for 106 yards and a touchdown, per Pro Football Focus. The 49ers have the third-lowest quick pressure rate (16%) and allow the second-longest average time to pressure (2.73 seconds). But note that the Colts are playing this game without both starting offensive tackles, and Rivers will be under more pressure after taking just one sack last week.
- 49ers QB Brock Purdy – Over 243.5 passing yards
Brock Purdy has missed 8 games this season, but he’s raised the Niners’ offensive ceiling. Purdy is averaging 0.27 EPA/play (3rd), and he has a favorable matchup in this game against a banged-up Colts’ defense. Colts CB Sauce Gardner is still out with a calf injury sustained in Week 13, and Charvarius Ward is now in IR. Purdy will target top TE George Kittle, who is worth a bet as well on the longest reception over 22.5 yards. During the Colts’ 4-game losing streak, Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes passed for 346 yards on 46 attempts, Seahawks QB Sam Darnold 271 yards on 36 attempts, Texans QB C.J. Stroud 276 yards on 35 attempts, and Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence 244 yards on 30 attempts.
- Colts RB Jonathan Taylor – Over 19.5 receiving yards
The Colts’ high-volume rushing approach may continue, but the Indianapolis ground game is coming off its second-worst outing of the year, averaging only 3.2 yards per rush against the Seahawks. Jonathan Taylor has an O/U rushing attempts of 23.5, up from 19.5 last week. The Colts’ ground game won’t be as effective with QB Rivers in the shotgun more often, but Rivers should rely on Taylor for easy short targets after completing 16-of-16 passes for 87 yards and a TD on throws under 10 air yards last week.
Top running back notes and considerations
Taylor has averaged 76 rushing yards per game during the Colts’ current 4-game losing streak, after averaging 114 rushing YPR through 11 games. Running backs Taylor and McCaffrey are both top-3 in the league in touches and more than 1,700 total yards from scrimmage. McCaffrey has amassed fewer than 90 scrimmage yards in each of his last two games after failing to reach that mark just once through his first 2 contests. Colts DT DeForest Buckner returns from injury for this key contest, and he’s been sidelined with a neck injury since Week 9. The Colts are conceding -0.13 EPA/rush (4th) and -0.25 EPA/target to opposing running backs (2nd).
Ahead of the Week 16 Monday Night Football contest and key games on Sunday, BetOnline has advance betting lines for Week 17 games. Key contests impacting the playoff picture include:
- Detroit (-3.5) at Minnesota, 49 (Thursday, Christmas)
- Denver (-6) at Kansas City, 39.5 (Thursday)
- Houston (-1.5) at LA Chargers, 39.5 (Saturday)
- Baltimore at Green Bay (-3.5), 45.5
- Seattle (-7.5) at Carolina, 43.5
- New England (-9) at NY Jets, 43
- Philadelphia at Buffalo (-3), 44.5
- Chicago at San Francisco (-3), 51.5 – SNF
- LA Rams (-8.5) at Atlanta, 48.5 – MNF
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